Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TN AND INTO NW AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING TOOL SUGGEST
THIS LINE COULD MOVE INTO NW GA BETWEEN 2-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
TWEAKED RAIN CHANCES UP IN TIME JUST A BIT ACROSS NORTH GA TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL AND HELD ONTO A CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS NORTH GA
OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS. ADJUSTED CLOUDS A
BIT AS WELL. OTHERWISE... TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
/39

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE CWA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GULF MOISTURE. THIS PROCESS
HAS ALREADY BEGUN WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TODAY
AND MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTORMS TO NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH GA
LIFTS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY
THE SEA BREEZE. AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A
HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO NORTH GA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING. ANY AREAS THAT
SEE SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. EXPECT
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GA TO BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY THAN SUNDAY DUE
TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

SHEAR VALUES ACROSS NORTH GA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20 TO
25KT RANGE...HOWEVER FOR AUGUST THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE TSTORMS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS.

17

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IN THE REGION AND ONLY WEAK
UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS
NOW BEING RESOLVED NOTICEABLY WEAKER AND LESS DISTINCT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND I STILL DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUFFICIENT COVERAGE
TO LIFT POPS ABOVE MID-CHANCE VALUES. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONGER OVER THE REGION BUT STILL DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE DOMINATING ENOUGH TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON... WARRANTING A
TEMPO 18-22Z -SHRA FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL MVFR CIGS SPREAD IN FROM THE SSW LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z MON. THE SAME UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DRAW CLOSER ON MONDAY... AND SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HAS PROMPTED ADDING A PROB30 18-24Z
-TSRA FOR MON AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD... WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN
6KTS TONIGHT... THEN 10-12KTS ON MON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPO TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  91  73 /  10  20  40  30
ATLANTA         91  73  90  73 /  10  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     86  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    91  70  90  69 /  30  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        94  73  94  74 /  20  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     91  71  90  72 /  20  30  50  30
MACON           95  72  95  73 /  10  10  20  30
ROME            91  71  90  69 /  40  40  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  92  71  91  70 /  10  20  30  30
VIDALIA         95  75  95  76 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17/39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 1000 OR LESS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ042-171915-
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JOHN TANNER STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS CARROLL
COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE TYUS...JOHN TANNER STATE PARK...BOWDON...MOUNT ZION...
CARROLLTON...ABILENE...CLEM...SEATON LAKE...TREASURE LAKE AND
WHITESBURG.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8490 3366 8490 3349 8492 3346 8530
      3361 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 258DEG 15KT 3355 8515

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GAZ042-044-053-171945-
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL...COWETA
AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WHITESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS CARROLL...
COWETA AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE PLANT YATES...SEATON LAKE...WHITESBURG...
ARNCO-SARGENT...BYERS CROSSROADS...DUNAWAY GARDENS...ROSCOE...
NEWNAN...CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY...MADRAS...PALMETTO AND
CANNONGATE.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8494 3359 8467 3350 8462 3337 8472
      3337 8491 3343 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 273DEG 19KT 3350 8491