Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THIS KICKED OFF
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THIS AREA OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 1000
TO 1200 J/KG...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS WIND REPORTS...STILL EXPECT
STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE. A
LITTLE BIT OF A HARDER FORECAST INITIALLY FOR NORTH GEORGIA. THIS
AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND WITH STORMS
ACROSS NE ALABAMA AND PARTS OF TN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PLACES IN
NORTH GEORGIA SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA...SHORT WAVE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SO NO FEATURE TO KEY ON FOR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ENHANCEMENT. THUS FOR TUESDAY...POPS ARE LIMITED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WITH CHANCE MENTIONED ONLY ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA.
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE GONE
HIGHER ON THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST IS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH VALUES NEAR THE MID 90S
FOR MOST AREAS.

11

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WHICH LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON
DESPITE IT BEING EARLY IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. LATEST 12Z GFS MORE
ONSHORE INITIALLY ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THAN THE GFS BUT
BOTH MODELS AS WELL AS OTHER LONG TERM MODELS KEEP ALL EFFECTS
WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL EARLY ON THOUGH AND WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD WE GET SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LATER IN
THE WEEK. CURRENT GRID SET HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AT BEST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ITS
GRIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND UPPER TN VALLEY REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND DRIFTING
IT NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY... WHILE IT ALSO SERVES TO LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY... BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND TRACKS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTING FURTHER OUT TO SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COASTS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN ALONG THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THEN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY... EXPECT ADDED HIGH
PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO HOLD POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED
NORTH AND MAYBE LOW SCATTERED CENTRAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECTING A NICE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO A MEX/HPC BLEND FOR THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVER
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. 39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH ATL TAF SITES AND
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS. WITH DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW
OF THE SITES THOUGH...LEAVING IN TEMPO FOR TS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...UNLESS ATL
AREA IS AFFECTED BY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING...MAINLY AHN AND MCN. CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION TSRA OR SHRA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION...CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TSRA.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  95  71  95 /  30  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  93  75  94 /  20  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  89  68  87 /  20  20  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    67  93  69  94 /  10  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        73  97  76  96 /  40  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  92  73  92 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           72  96  72  96 /  40  20  10  20
ROME            67  95  70  96 /  10  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  94  68  95 /  20  20  10  20
VIDALIA         73  94  75  95 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11

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