Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT AND HAVE LEFT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT
TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 8PM BEFORE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE MORE INTO THE
STATE...DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY OR
TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES IN NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF
CWA. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM COMPARED TO THE PREV 30 DAYS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD WARMER TEMP GUIDANCE.

SOME CONCERN EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM ON INVEST/TROPICAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER EVEN IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
INTO A NAMED STORM...IMPACT ON CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MAY EVEN SEE
LESS CHANCE FOR MORNING STRATUS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH NORTH
FLOW ON GA/SC COAST.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO LONG TERM FCST. INVEST LOW MAY CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP AND CLOUD FCST BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT
MUCH IMPACT EVEN IN WORST CASE. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN
RIDGE BUILDING IN SRN STATES BEGINNING WED OVER ERN STATES BUT
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND CORRESPONDING WARMER TEMPS BY
WEEKEND.

SNELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...
THEN PUSHING INTO THE OHIO AND MS VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD... IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
TN VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY... THEN ACROSS NORTH GA AND INTO
CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTH GA BY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EITHER LOWER CENTRAL
OR SOUTH GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS SAME TIME... THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE GA COASTS ON THURSDAY...
THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES... IT WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EITHER WAY... IT APPEARS NORTH AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL GA SHOULD BE UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FOR JULY
4TH... WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

OTHERWISE... UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE RESULTS IN CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...AND FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER... SHOULD BEGIN SEE COOLER HIGHS BEGIN TO CREEP IN ACROSS
NORTH GA ON WEDNESDAY... THEN NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY... SHOULD SEE
COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTER IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO A MEX/HPC BLEND FOR
NOW... WHICH KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DESPITE THE FRONTAL INFLUENCE. HOWEVER... SUSPECT
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS FOR AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING IF THE FRONT VERIFIES AS EXPECTED. /39

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERING SO HAVE KEPT TEMPO THUNDER IN
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND FROM
STORMS IT POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR AND HAVE ADDED SOME
SCT012 AND VSBY 3-5SM TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SHIFT
TO SE AROUND 04Z THEN BACK TO WEST AT 15Z. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  93  71  96 /  30  40  30  20
ATLANTA         71  90  72  93 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  84  63  89 /  30  40  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  67  93 /  30  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        72  95  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     69  89  71  92 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           69  94  69  96 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            69  90  68  94 /  30  30  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  91  68  95 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         71  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1142 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1142 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH
BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY
SOME SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING
TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
942 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

GAZ083>085-096-097-109-300230-
942 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS...EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZED HAIL IN TWIGGS...LAURENS...JOHNSON...
WILKINSON...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 939 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NICKLESVILLE TO PAULK...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED
HAIL...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS TWIGGS...LAURENS...JOHNSON...WILKINSON...
BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE PAULK...MAGNOLIA...ROYAL...PORTER...
COLEY STATION...CARY...MONTROSE...GOLDSBORO...COCHRAN...
NICKLESVILLE...REBIE...RODDY...EMPIRE...CHAPPELLS MILL AND DUDLEY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8342 3240 8350 3243 8349 3252 8335
      3263 8315 3275 8310 3272 8304 3277 8296
      3276 8295 3278 8288 3272 8268 3257 8265
      3237 8274 3225 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 287DEG 29KT 3272 8311 3251 8315
          3235 8342

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
954 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARNER ROBINS           32.62N  83.63W
06/29/2014                   HOUSTON            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            A HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A LARGE TREE DOWN WHICH
            TOOK OUT POWER LINES AND LANDED ON PART OF CAR AT 111
            JACOBS LN. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 40-45 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400738

BANGHOFF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

GAZ001>004-300500-
1210 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WHITFIELD...
WALKER...CATOOSA AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1210 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR CHATTANOOGA
VALLEY TO COOPER HEIGHTS TO JUST WEST OF CENTER POST... AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
WHITFIELD...WALKER...CATOOSA AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8482 3493 8484 3487 8482 3484 8485
      3480 8484 3478 8486 3479 8487 3472 8485
      3470 8489 3471 8494 3468 8489 3468 8494
      3464 8491 3462 8493 3462 8506 3459 8506
      3459 8553 3498 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 257DEG 18KT 3491 8530 3475 8529
          3461 8541

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1218 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

GAZ011-019-300445-
1218 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN CHATTOOGA AND
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1218 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TRION
TO COOSA TO CAVE SPRING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CAVE SPRING...COOSA... HOLLAND...
CHATTOOGAVILLE...JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK... LYERLY... BERRYTON...
SUMMERVILLE...MENLO...TRION...CLOUDLAND...TIDINGS ...SUBLIGNA...
ARMUCHEE AND ROME.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8507 3455 8506 3454 8509 3447 8509
      3446 8511 3443 8509 3442 8511 3439 8501
      3422 8503 3421 8505 3410 8505 3408 8512
      3410 8516 3410 8525 3408 8526 3409 8543
      3459 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 242DEG 18KT 3450 8525 3428 8525
          3412 8533

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1237 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

GAZ030-031-300515-
1237 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN POLK AND PAULDING
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

AT 1237 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CEDARTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS POLK AND
PAULDING COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE ESOM HILL...ETNA...CEDARTOWN...ANTIOCH...FISH
CREEK...VAN WERT...ROCKMART...ARAGON...DALLAS...BRASWELL...NEW
HOPE...YORKVILLE...CROSS ROADS AND BURNT HICKORY RIDGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8516 3408 8516 3410 8505 3408 8504
      3408 8494 3408 8474 3395 8474 3394 8472
      3390 8473 3389 8503 3390 8504 3391 8521
      3389 8539 3408 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 267DEG 18KT 3402 8523