Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. HAVE HAD MOSTLY HAIL REPORTS...WIH AN ISOLD WIND REPORT
FOR NOW. HRRR KEEPS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE UPDATING PRODUCTS TO
KEEP ACTIVITY IN A BIT LONGER.

HAVE ALSO UPPED THE POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
AND EAST GA AND INTO TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THIS AREA BUT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ATL AREA. AREAS S AND W OF ATL
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE AL/GA LINE BY 12Z TUE. SURFACE BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE
ALSO BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. THERE IS
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA MON IN THE
NWLY FLOW SO WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO DECENT INSTABILITY AND DAY TIME HEATING EXPECTED.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
HAVE STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR PERSISTENCE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY LOOK TO BE APPROPRIATE. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GUIDANCE AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH INCREASED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A BROAD ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE RATHER STAGNANT AND MARKED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. HAVE UPPED THE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BASED ON THE
PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF TROUGH. HAVE PEGGED
THURSDAY AS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
RESULTANT WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS MAINLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF ATL THIS EVENING AND HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAF. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PROGGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A FEW015
DECK. NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED...SO DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TO THE
EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE S/SW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  86  67  88 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         67  87  69  86 /  30  30  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     59  83  61  82 /  30  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  88  64  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS        68  91  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     65  85  67  86 /  30  40  30  30
MACON           66  88  67  89 /  20  40  30  30
ROME            62  87  64  88 /  30  30  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  63  88  65  87 /  20  30  30  30
VIDALIA         68  88  70  89 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO MAINLY THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING
TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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