Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
AND EAST GA AND INTO TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THIS AREA BUT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ATL AREA. AREAS S AND W OF ATL
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE AL/GA LINE BY 12Z TUE. SURFACE BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE
ALSO BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. THERE IS
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA MON IN THE
NWLY FLOW SO WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO DECENT INSTABILITY AND DAY TIME HEATING EXPECTED.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
HAVE STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR PERSISTENCE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY LOOK TO BE APPROPRIATE. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GUIDANCE AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014/
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH INCREASED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A BROAD ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE RATHER STAGNANT AND MARKED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. HAVE UPPED THE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BASED ON THE
PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF TROUGH. HAVE PEGGED
THURSDAY AS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
RESULTANT WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.

GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS MAINLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF ATL THIS EVENING AND HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAF. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PROGGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A FEW015
DECK. NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED...SO DIURNAL SCT THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TO THE
EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE S/SW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  86  67  88 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         67  87  69  86 /  30  30  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     59  83  61  82 /  30  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  88  64  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS        68  91  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     65  85  67  86 /  30  40  30  30
MACON           66  88  67  89 /  20  40  30  30
ROME            62  87  64  88 /  30  30  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  63  88  65  87 /  20  30  30  30
VIDALIA         68  88  70  89 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO MAINLY THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING
TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             CANOOCHEE               32.67N  82.18W
05/25/2014  E1.75 INCH       EMANUEL            GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400616

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N FARMINGTON          33.82N  83.42W
05/25/2014                   OCONEE             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY. MUCH OF IT IN THE BISHOP AND FARMINGTON REGION

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400617

KSTELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

GAZ086-252330-
718 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...TWIN CITY AND
STILLMORE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3255 8208 3251 8215 3241 8219
      3236 8224 3234 8223 3231 8223 3231 8226
      3263 8229 3262 8201 3258 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 359DEG 13KT 3253 8213

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             GARFIELD                32.65N  82.10W
05/25/2014  E0.75 INCH       EMANUEL            GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY THE ATTENDANT AT THE J AND W DASH N GO

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400618

NLIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

GAZ038-039-050-051-260015-
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WILKES...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

AT 724 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PHILOMATH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WILKES...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SANDY CROSS...
PENFIELD...WOODVILLE...PHILOMATH...LEXINGTON...CARTERS GROVE...DANIEL
SPRINGS...LYNEVILLE...VESTA...CENTERVILLE...RAYLE...TYRONE...JACKSONS
CROSSROADS...CELESTE AND NEWTOWN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8254 3363 8318 3364 8319 3397 8313
      3397 8264 3384 8258 3380 8258 3365 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 269DEG 24KT 3379 8298

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

GAZ050-260000-
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER VEAZEY...MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GREENE COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE VEAZEY AND LIBERTY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 8305 3336 8315 3347 8325 3352 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 316DEG 9KT 3347 8321