Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING DURING THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA CURRENTLY WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LEADING EDGE OF MAIN AREA
OF RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...PUTTING IT ON A
COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE AROUND 18Z. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR TODAY AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN ALL ZONES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM ERODING WEDGE. STRONG SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 00Z
AND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
THE NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

41

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN SUN MORNING EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. THIS
NET SYSTEM THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS A COLLABORATION OF TWO SYSTEMS
THAT MERGE OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES NE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF THAT
MERGES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SWINGING AROUND THE
MAIN LOW CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HELPS ENHANCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY EXPECTING SHOWERS FOR NOW.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT OF THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND BY 6-12 HOURS
WITH ITS EASTERLY PROGRESSION. THERE IS A BIT OF BACKSIDE MOISTURE
THAT MOVES ACROSS N GA TUE NIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO JUST DIP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THAT AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THIS SECOND SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. TEMPS STAY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS WITH A BIT OF FLUCTUATION PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEG AS WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

01

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES NORTH AND ONE INCH OR LESS
CENTRAL STILL LOOK OKAY. BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER ISOLATED SITES COULD REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE MINOR FLOODING THAT
IS POSSIBLE...NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ALREADY ENDED IN THE ATL AREA AND WILL BE ENDING BY 18Z IN
CSG AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR AHN AND MCN. RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND THIS LINE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ALL AREAS WITH A FEW
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FOG
AS WINDS SHOULD NOT CALM OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  38  57  38 / 100   5   0   5
ATLANTA         63  39  56  41 / 100   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  34  53  34 / 100  20   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  54  36 / 100   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        69  41  62  42 /  90   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  37  53  38 / 100   5   0   5
MACON           70  40  62  38 / 100  10   0   5
ROME            63  34  54  35 / 100   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  66  35  57  35 / 100   5   0   5
VIDALIA         73  47  64  42 /  90  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY 4 TO 6PM.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THESE HAZARDS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS TO WARRENTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. NORTH GA
MAY SEE SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WRENS                   33.21N  82.39W
01/11/2014                   JEFFERSON          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN IN THE WRENS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400017

RW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ086-098-110>113-111945-
159 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF BRIEF
TORNADOES AND 40 MPH WINDS IN WHEELER...TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...
TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EST...

AT 157 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM STILLMORE TO CHINA HILL...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS EXHIBITED AREAS OF
LOCALIZED...WEAK ROTATION...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A TORNADO AT 157 PM EST. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF...GENERALLY WEAK...
TORNADO FORMING. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LINE
MOVES ACROSS WHEELER...TREUTLEN...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...MONTGOMERY AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE KIBBEE...
WORKMORE...CHINA HILL...SCOTLAND...AILEY...STILLMORE...MOUNT
VERNON...JACKSONVILLE...NORMANTOWN...HIGGSTON...TOWNS...STILLMORE...
OAK PARK...HIGGSTON AND SPRING HILL.

EVERYONE IN THIS AREA IS URGED TO REMAIN INDOORS AND BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND WEAK TORNADOES THAT FORM AND
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. ONCE THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF YOUR
AREA...THE RISK OF TORNADO FORMATION WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8314 3248 8226 3251 8216 3243 8218
      3236 8224 3218 8218 3210 8219 3194 8240
      3196 8244 3196 8248 3194 8249 3195 8256
      3192 8261 3192 8267 3186 8274 3178 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 254DEG 41KT 3245 8224 3215 8263
          3183 8304