Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING DURING THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA CURRENTLY WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LEADING EDGE OF MAIN AREA
OF RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...PUTTING IT ON A
COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE AROUND 18Z. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR TODAY AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN ALL ZONES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM ERODING WEDGE. STRONG SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 00Z
AND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
THE NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

41

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN SUN MORNING EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. THIS
NET SYSTEM THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS A COLLABORATION OF TWO SYSTEMS
THAT MERGE OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES NE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF THAT
MERGES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SWINGING AROUND THE
MAIN LOW CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HELPS ENHANCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY EXPECTING SHOWERS FOR NOW.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT OF THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND BY 6-12 HOURS
WITH ITS EASTERLY PROGRESSION. THERE IS A BIT OF BACKSIDE MOISTURE
THAT MOVES ACROSS N GA TUE NIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO JUST DIP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THAT AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THIS SECOND SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY FOR THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. TEMPS STAY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS WITH A BIT OF FLUCTUATION PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEG AS WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

01

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES NORTH AND ONE INCH OR LESS
CENTRAL STILL LOOK OKAY. BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER ISOLATED SITES COULD REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE MINOR FLOODING THAT
IS POSSIBLE...NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GOING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15KT AND GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT AND WEST 10
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 00Z AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
WINDS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  38  57  38 / 100   5   0   5
ATLANTA         63  39  56  41 / 100   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  34  53  34 / 100  20   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  54  36 / 100   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        69  41  62  42 /  90   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  37  53  38 / 100   5   0   5
MACON           70  40  62  38 / 100  10   0   5
ROME            63  34  54  35 / 100   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  66  35  57  35 / 100   5   0   5
VIDALIA         73  47  64  42 /  90  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY 4 TO 6PM.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THESE HAZARDS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS TO WARRENTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. NORTH GA
MAY SEE SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ050-051-060-061-071>073-080>082-111645-
1119 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
TALIAFERRO...PUTNAM...MONROE...JONES...TAYLOR...BALDWIN...BIBB...
CRAWFORD...GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM EST...

AT 1115 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LIBERTY TO HORNS...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TALIAFERRO...PUTNAM...MONROE...JONES...TAYLOR...BALDWIN...
BIBB...CRAWFORD...GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EST.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NAKOMIS...LEE
POPE...MUSELLA...KNOXVILLE...ROBERTA...FICKLING MILL...JARRELL
PLANTATION...ROUND OAK...DAMES FERRY...PLANT SCHERER...BOLINGBROKE...
WARFIELD...STANFORDVILLE...EATONTON AND REYNOLDS PLANTATION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8272 3352 8282 3347 8287 3342 8282
      3291 8339 3285 8351 3282 8349 3267 8366
      3269 8377 3253 8400 3264 8422 3304 8385
      3316 8366 3317 8355 3324 8354 3349 8313
      3362 8277 3362 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 248DEG 51KT 3347 8309 3306 8361
          3269 8400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ060-061-072>074-080-082>084-093>096-104>107-111730-
1143 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF BRIEF
TORNADOES...40 MPH WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN IN WASHINGTON...TWIGGS...
SUMTER... PUTNAM...PULASKI...PEACH...JONES...WILKINSON...MACON...
TAYLOR...BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRISP...DOOLY...HANCOCK AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EST...

AT 1138 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLAT ROCK TO AMERICUS...MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS EXHIBITED AREAS OF
LOCALIZED...WEAK ROTATION...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A TORNADO AT 1138 AM EST. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF...GENERALLY WEAK...
TORNADO FORMING. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LINE
MOVES ACROSS WASHINGTON...TWIGGS...SUMTER...PUTNAM...PULASKI...
PEACH...JONES...WILKINSON...MACON...TAYLOR...BALDWIN...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...CRISP...DOOLY...HANCOCK AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1230
PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FLAT ROCK...
MADDOX...HUNTINGTON...ANDERSONVILLE...AMERICUS...ELBERTA...
CLEARVIEW...WINCHESTER...WHITEWATER STATE PARK...SAINT LOUIS...
ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE...FOUNTAINVILLE...BARTLETT...
MARSHALLVILLE AND MONTEZUMA.

EVERYONE IN THIS AREA IS URGED TO REMAIN INDOORS AND BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND WEAK TORNADOES THAT FORM AND
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. ONCE THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF YOUR
AREA...THE RISK OF TORNADO FORMATION WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8441 3216 8428 3216 8419 3225 8422
      3253 8401 3269 8372 3270 8374 3276 8384
      3338 8336 3339 8319 3336 8316 3340 8311
      3340 8283 3314 8270 3286 8289 3258 8323
      3212 8354 3212 8361 3201 8361 3187 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 253DEG 59KT 3325 8318 3270 8356
          3208 8422