Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
923 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 923 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Cold front and the line of storms along it are moving into a region
of very high instability with MLCAPE values still around 5000 J/kg.
While these storms are leaving the highest deep-layer shear, they are
also entering a region of increasing low-level shear and helicity.
There is also a notable gravity wave propagating southwest along the
front which is causing convection to perk up as it passes through.
This wave is entering northern parts of the KC area at this time and
will likely cause storms to develop further southwest along the front
into eastern KS. Will need to watch a temporary increase in tornado
threat as this wave causes storms to grow in intensity while they
enter an environment of high shear and modest low-level helicity around
the KC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Main concern for this evening and tonight will be the potential for
strong to severe storms along a southeastward moving cold front,
mainly between 6 PM and 2 AM. Very high MUCAPE values in the 3000-
4000 J/kg range currently combined with 30 to 45 kts of deep layer
shear is very supportive of severe weather; however, 18z KTOP
sounding and aircraft soundings out of MCI have confirmed a very
substantial capping inversion around 850 mb which has prevented warm
sector convection (even along several outflow boundaries) across the
area, and will need to be overcome by forcing along the cold front
for any convection to be possible this evening and tonight. A few
elevated storms developed along an outflow boundary intersection
north of Concordia KS earlier this afternoon and are currently
trekking through the northwest corner of the forecast area, but have
been both too elevated and too shallow to present any severe threat
in those areas.

Stable low-level air and cloud cover from earlier convection has
thus far prevented the development of surface based deep convection
along the cold front this afternoon across southeast Nebraska, which
now stretches from the Omaha metro to around Hebron NE. High-res
convection allowing models continue to indicate initiation along the
front in far northwest Missouri between 23z-00z as it pushes into
more unstable air, with at least scattered convection continuing
along the boundary through the evening. If storms can develop and
root in the boundary layer, initial supercell structure is likely
due to favorable deep layer shear and instability, and should
support large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes seem unlikely with
winds veering slightly in the vicinity of the front, and eventually
supercell structure will become increasingly unlikely as storms move
southward away from the better deep layer shear later this evening.
Linear bowing segments may become the main concern late this evening
if storms survive due to increasing DCAPE and if any outflow
boundaries develop and begin to drive storm propagation. However,
the front may not provide enough support for continued initiation as
it moves southeast into hotter 850 mb temperatures and as surface
temps begin to cool, possibly allowing storms to fall apart near
Kansas City and areas southeast.

The most likely area for convection tonight will be across far
northern and northeastern Missouri, where precipitable water is
around 2 inches (about 2 standard deviations above normal) and 2 to
3 inches of rainfall already occurred last night. Because of the
higher probability of heavy rainfall and already saturated ground,
have issued a Flash Flood watch for our northern and northeastern
counties from 00z-06z.

After the front exits the area late tonight, quieter conditions are
expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A shortwave trough will
skirt the southern edge of the forecast area early Tuesday, but with
the boundary well south of the area and the wave tracking mainly
south of the CWA, should not see any additional precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

From this vantage point...long term period shaping up to be quite
dry and noticeably cooler...at least early on as strong sfc high
pressure builds over the area. In fact...high temps on Wednesday will
only warm into the lower to middle 70s across most areas...which is
anywhere between 10-15 degrees below normal. Dry conditions to
continue with some moderation right through early Friday.

Benign conditions begin to fall by the wayside come late Friday into
the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls just west of the
fcst area. This will occur as longwave ridging becomes firmly
established across the west and downstream troughing develops over
the Plains. The boundary coupled with several individual
disturbances in developing northwest flow aloft will support an
increase in precip chances through the latter stages of the fcst
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Expect line of convection over north central MO to grow southwestward
into far northeast KS and could impact the KC terminals over the next
few hours. Line will likely be scattered to broken in nature, and
chances that storms hit a location around the KC area are about 60%.
These storms could be strong with hail and strong winds. Line will be
quick to exit the area by 10pm to 11 pm with drying conditions for
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-015>017.

&&

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-012145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING
 ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
 MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
 WEATHER SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
 MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

 HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
 THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT ANY
 HEAT RELATED INJURIES OR DEATHS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
911 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOZ022-023-030-031-010245-
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
911 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAYMER...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BRAYMER...LUDLOW...DAWN...BOGARD...AVALON AND TINA.

LAT...LON 3967 9338 3944 9341 3942 9359 3949 9398
      3968 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 280DEG 35KT 3958 9381

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
914 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOZ024-025-010245-
LINN MO-MACON MO-
914 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON AND NORTHERN
LINN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROWNING...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF
BROOKFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW BOSTON...ETHEL...SOUTH GIFFORD AND ELMER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3980 9260 3991 9325 4004 9309 4003 9251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 276DEG 44KT 3997 9309

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
937 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     HAIL             2 N GLADSTONE           39.23N 94.56W
06/30/2014  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS REPORTED BY TRAINED
            SPOTTER NEAR NEWMARK AND MAPLEWOODS DRIVE.

&&

MELL

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