Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Kansas City, MO

818 
WWUS53 KEAX 010121
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
821 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOC081-010131-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-140701T0130Z/
HARRISON MO-
821 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4035 9291 4012 9319 3998 9344 4004 9385
      4017 9371 4033 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 277DEG 38KT 4026 9324 4014 9340
          4004 9361

$$

MOC061-079-129-211-010130-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-140701T0130Z/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-MERCER MO-SULLIVAN MO-
821 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SULLIVAN...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...GRUNDY AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 818 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILAN TO GALT TO TRENTON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILAN...GALT...HUMPHREYS...LAREDO AND REGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9291 4012 9319 3998 9344 4004 9385
      4017 9371 4033 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 277DEG 38KT 4026 9324 4014 9340
          4004 9361

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Main concern for this evening and tonight will be the potential for
strong to severe storms along a southeastward moving cold front,
mainly between 6 PM and 2 AM. Very high MUCAPE values in the 3000-
4000 J/kg range currently combined with 30 to 45 kts of deep layer
shear is very supportive of severe weather; however, 18z KTOP
sounding and aircraft soundings out of MCI have confirmed a very
substantial capping inversion around 850 mb which has prevented warm
sector convection (even along several outflow boundaries) across the
area, and will need to be overcome by forcing along the cold front
for any convection to be possible this evening and tonight. A few
elevated storms developed along an outflow boundary intersection
north of Concordia KS earlier this afternoon and are currently
trekking through the northwest corner of the forecast area, but have
been both too elevated and too shallow to present any severe threat
in those areas.

Stable low-level air and cloud cover from earlier convection has
thus far prevented the development of surface based deep convection
along the cold front this afternoon across southeast Nebraska, which
now stretches from the Omaha metro to around Hebron NE. High-res
convection allowing models continue to indicate initiation along the
front in far northwest Missouri between 23z-00z as it pushes into
more unstable air, with at least scattered convection continuing
along the boundary through the evening. If storms can develop and
root in the boundary layer, initial supercell structure is likely
due to favorable deep layer shear and instability, and should
support large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes seem unlikely with
winds veering slightly in the vicinity of the front, and eventually
supercell structure will become increasingly unlikely as storms move
southward away from the better deep layer shear later this evening.
Linear bowing segments may become the main concern late this evening
if storms survive due to increasing DCAPE and if any outflow
boundaries develop and begin to drive storm propagation. However,
the front may not provide enough support for continued initiation as
it moves southeast into hotter 850 mb temperatures and as surface
temps begin to cool, possibly allowing storms to fall apart near
Kansas City and areas southeast.

The most likely area for convection tonight will be across far
northern and northeastern Missouri, where precipitable water is
around 2 inches (about 2 standard deviations above normal) and 2 to
3 inches of rainfall already occurred last night. Because of the
higher probability of heavy rainfall and already saturated ground,
have issued a Flash Flood watch for our northern and northeastern
counties from 00z-06z.

After the front exits the area late tonight, quieter conditions are
expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A shortwave trough will
skirt the southern edge of the forecast area early Tuesday, but with
the boundary well south of the area and the wave tracking mainly
south of the CWA, should not see any additional precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

From this vantage point...long term period shaping up to be quite
dry and noticeably cooler...at least early on as strong sfc high
pressure builds over the area. In fact...high temps on Wednesday will
only warm into the lower to middle 70s across most areas...which is
anywhere between 10-15 degrees below normal. Dry conditions to
continue with some moderation right through early Friday.

Benign conditions begin to fall by the wayside come late Friday into
the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls just west of the
fcst area. This will occur as longwave ridging becomes firmly
established across the west and downstream troughing develops over
the Plains. The boundary coupled with several individual
disturbances in developing northwest flow aloft will support an
increase in precip chances through the latter stages of the fcst
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Expect line of convection over north central MO to grow southwestward
into far northeast KS and could impact the KC terminals over the next
few hours. Line will likely be scattered to broken in nature, and
chances that storms hit a location around the KC area are about 60%.
These storms could be strong with hail and strong winds. Line will be
quick to exit the area by 10pm to 11 pm with drying conditions for
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ002>008-015>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-012145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING
 ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
 MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
 WEATHER SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
 MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

 HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
 THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT ANY
 HEAT RELATED INJURIES OR DEATHS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TORNADO          6 ESE DENVER            40.37N 94.22W
06/30/2014                   GENTRY             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SMALL DEBRIS WHIRL OBSERVED BY MEDIA/CHASER.

&&

APIETRYCHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             PRINCETON               40.40N 93.59W
06/30/2014  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOZ003>006-010015-
GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-WORTH MO-
634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WORTH...NORTHWESTERN
MERCER...NORTHERN HARRISON AND NORTHERN GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EAGLEVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF GRANT CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  EAGLEVILLE...RIDGEWAY...CAINSVILLE...MARTINSVILLE AND BLYTHEDALE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 114.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9354 4032 9383 4032 9455 4058 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 270DEG 37KT 4057 9407 4037 9437

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW PRINCETON          40.39N 93.60W
06/30/2014  E60 MPH          MERCER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN. SMALL
            BRANCHES ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER DOWN.

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
726 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             S NEWTOWN               40.38N 93.33W
06/30/2014  E1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
732 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 SE POLLOCK            40.35N 93.07W
06/30/2014                   SULLIVAN           MO   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD ON HIGHWAY B EAST OF HIGHWAY 5.
            LASTED 45-50 SECONDS. WINDS 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

MELL