Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

The main focus in the near term is the severe potential for this
afternoon and overnight tonight. The various NWP differ with respect
to development and timing and are having a tough time depicting the
current warm air advection induced convection across eastern NE and
IA. For this fcst issuance have stayed the course with the best
chance for surface based storms developing across the northwestern
counties, per VIS satellite and radar trends. The convection should
then spread across the CWA overnight tonight. The Flash Flood Watch
that is in effect beginning 00Z tonight through 12Z tomorrow looks on
track as that area should see training storms producing a large swath
of rainfall of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. As for the
hail, wind, and tornado threats, those too have the higher
probabilities across our northern zones this evening as that is where
the best supportive shear and instability exist well into the
overnight hours. The activity should continue well into the night
with straight line winds being the main issue of concern, though QLCS
issues may develop if a line can consolidate over the CWA.

The precip should slowly end from northwest to southeast very late
tonight into tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front. The
exception should be our far south central and southeast zones where
showers and scattered storms will linger well into the day on
Wednesday.  Once that activity moves off the entire CWA should see
very cool temperatures for Thursday and Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Strong cold air advection will continue on Friday, holding highs in
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees -- nearly 25 degrees below seasonal
normals. A few light showers are possible as the upper trough moves
over Friday and Friday evening, then surface high pressure will
build in for Saturday and Sunday, keeping temperatures cool and
precipitation chances nil.

Return flow on the back side of the high will allow temperatures to
warm back into the 70s by Monday, while flow gradually flattens to
zonal and allows a few disturbances to float back into the region,
creating lower-end chances for showers and storms for the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals later this
afternoon and overnight tonight. Uncertainty exists as to how long to
keep TSRA in the TAFS, but at this time believe the first of what
should be two rounds of precip was placed in a TEMPO. Will amend TAFs
once storms develop to better time them out. VCTS is very possible
well into the night ahead of a cold front that will slowly move in
from the northwest and produce a quick wind shift out of the northwest
by mid-morning Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning FOR MOZ001>008-011>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Pietrycha

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-102030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
 INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THIS EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY IS NOT
 EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

 MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
 AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER 5 PM. THESE STORMS
 COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
 PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
 ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
 ADDITIONALLY...TORRENTIAL RAIN FROM STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT MIGHT
 LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
 AND EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
 EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...ESPECIALLY IN FAR
 NORTHWEST MISSOURI...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N WATSON              40.51N 95.62W
09/09/2014  E60 MPH          ATCHISON           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ADOLPHSON