Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Kansas City, MO

310 
WWUS53 KEAX 302234
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOC075-227-302244-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140630T2300Z/
GENTRY MO-WORTH MO-
534 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4036 9383 4031 9421 4034 9422 4042 9421
      4052 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 260DEG 27KT 4038 9412

$$

MOC081-302300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140630T2300Z/
HARRISON MO-
534 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HARRISON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 533 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEW HAMPTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLEVILLE...RIDGEWAY AND BLYTHEDALE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 98 AND 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 9383 4031 9421 4034 9422 4042 9421
      4052 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 260DEG 27KT 4038 9412

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJ

930 
WWUS53 KEAX 302247
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOC081-302300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140630T2300Z/
HARRISON MO-
547 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
HARRISON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGEWAY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLEVILLE...RIDGEWAY AND BLYTHEDALE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 98 AND 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 9383 4032 9415 4035 9417 4041 9417
      4049 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 256DEG 36KT 4039 9398

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Main concern for this evening and tonight will be the potential for
strong to severe storms along a southeastward moving cold front,
mainly between 6 PM and 2 AM. Very high MUCAPE values in the 3000-
4000 J/kg range currently combined with 30 to 45 kts of deep layer
shear is very supportive of severe weather; however, 18z KTOP
sounding and aircraft soundings out of MCI have confirmed a very
substantial capping inversion around 850 mb which has prevented warm
sector convection (even along several outflow boundaries) across the
area, and will need to be overcome by forcing along the cold front
for any convection to be possible this evening and tonight. A few
elevated storms developed along an outflow boundary intersection
north of Concordia KS earlier this afternoon and are currently
trekking through the northwest corner of the forecast area, but have
been both too elevated and too shallow to present any severe threat
in those areas.

Stable low-level air and cloud cover from earlier convection has
thus far prevented the development of surface based deep convection
along the cold front this afternoon across southeast Nebraska, which
now stretches from the Omaha metro to around Hebron NE. High-res
convection allowing models continue to indicate initiation along the
front in far northwest Missouri between 23z-00z as it pushes into
more unstable air, with at least scattered convection continuing
along the boundary through the evening. If storms can develop and
root in the boundary layer, initial supercell structure is likely
due to favorable deep layer shear and instability, and should
support large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes seem unlikely with
winds veering slightly in the vicinity of the front, and eventually
supercell structure will become increasingly unlikely as storms move
southward away from the better deep layer shear later this evening.
Linear bowing segments may become the main concern late this evening
if storms survive due to increasing DCAPE and if any outflow
boundaries develop and begin to drive storm propagation. However,
the front may not provide enough support for continued initiation as
it moves southeast into hotter 850 mb temperatures and as surface
temps begin to cool, possibly allowing storms to fall apart near
Kansas City and areas southeast.

The most likely area for convection tonight will be across far
northern and northeastern Missouri, where precipitable water is
around 2 inches (about 2 standard deviations above normal) and 2 to
3 inches of rainfall already occurred last night. Because of the
higher probability of heavy rainfall and already saturated ground,
have issued a Flash Flood watch for our northern and northeastern
counties from 00z-06z.

After the front exits the area late tonight, quieter conditions are
expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A shortwave trough will
skirt the southern edge of the forecast area early Tuesday, but with
the boundary well south of the area and the wave tracking mainly
south of the CWA, should not see any additional precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

From this vantage point...long term period shaping up to be quite
dry and noticeably cooler...at least early on as strong sfc high
pressure builds over the area. In fact...high temps on Wednesday will
only warm into the lower to middle 70s across most areas...which is
anywhere between 10-15 degrees below normal. Dry conditions to
continue with some moderation right through early Friday.

Benign conditions begin to fall by the wayside come late Friday into
the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls just west of the
fcst area. This will occur as longwave ridging becomes firmly
established across the west and downstream troughing develops over
the Plains. The boundary coupled with several individual
disturbances in developing northwest flow aloft will support an
increase in precip chances through the latter stages of the fcst
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Main aviation concern for today will be thunderstorms forming along a
cold front around 22z-23z in far northwest Missouri, and then moving
southeast along the front between 00z-06z. Most likely timing for any
storms to impact TAF sites will be between 00z-03z for STJ and 01z-
04z for MCI/MKC. Otherwise, winds will be breezy out of the southwest
with scattered to broken cumulus around 4 kft ahead of the front,
then will be briefly gusty out of the northwest just behind the
front, lessening to around 5 kts thereafter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ002>008-015>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-012145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
435 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING
 ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
 MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
 WEATHER SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
 MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

 HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
 THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT ANY
 HEAT RELATED INJURIES OR DEATHS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
438 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MOZ002-003-005-302215-
HARRISON MO-NODAWAY MO-WORTH MO-
438 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORTH...NORTHEASTERN NODAWAY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF RAVENWOOD...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GRANT CITY...SHERIDAN...ALLENDALE AND HATFIELD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4055 9383 4036 9470 4051 9478 4058 9457
      4058 9385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 249DEG 38KT 4046 9462

MJ