Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

As alluded to with earlier update...a very complicated severe weather
scenario upon us for the rest of today into the overnight. Latest
visible satellite imagery still showing a fair amount of upper CI
over the region this afternoon...which has curtailed daytime heating
to some degree. In fact...18z special Topeka RAOB sounding shows a fair
amount of negative area that still needs to be overcome before
surface based convection can begin. In addition...large scale
forcing for ascent remains weak this afternoon as heights actually
increase slightly as main shortwave energy across the Northern
Plains/Upr Miss Rvr Vly ejects into southern Canada. Moreover...main
synoptic scale cold front still remains positioned well to the
northwest this afternoon across central NE. All told...not a whole
lot to hang your hat on at the present time.

In any event...concern right night remains focused on upstream
shortwave/MCV approaching the area from central KS right now. This
feature combined with several residual outflow boundaries should be
enough to get this going later this afternoon/early evening as upper
cloud cover continues to erode with time. In fact...latest regional
radars now showing initial development across southeastern NE.

In terms of overall convective evolution...deep layered shear will
continue increasing this afternoon/evening as main mid-level jet core
winds along southern periphery of south-central Canadian upper low
continue to increase. Bulk shear vector orientation initially will
support isolated cells...before growing upscale into one or more
line segments as outflow boundaries develop. With a fair amount of
dry air aloft combined with steep mid-level lapse rates...activity
could easily congeal into a forward propagating MCS with strong
damaging winds becoming the main concern. Initial isolated activity
will likely support a severe hail threat...with best tornado
potential remaining displaced across far northern MO and southern IA in
closer proximity to the main synoptic scale front. In general
through...large hail and damaging winds remain the biggest concerns
this afternoon.

If a forward propagating MCS does develop...developing outflow may
become parallel to the deep layered flow later tonight. This combined
with an increasing low-level jet may support renewed convection
upstream and the possibilities for back-building or backwards
propagating MCS. If this develops...a heightened heavy rain/flash
flood threat may occur during the overnight hrs. Will also highlight
these concerns in the afternoon HWO product. If this doesn't
occur...conditions should begin improving late in the evening behind
any linear based convection that develops. Overnight lows should fall
into the upper 60s to lower 70s...ensuring a warm and muggy overnight
for all.

On Monday...main cold front to move through the region during the
afternoon/early evening hrs. Deep layered shear of 40-45 kts will
again support the possibilities of widespread severe convection with
parallel bulk shear vector orientation suggesting a linear based
evolution as main boundary sags through the area. Out ahead of this
feature...well pronounced 850-mb thermal ridging characterized by
temps of roughly 25C should support widespread upper 80s and low 90s
for daytime highs. Fcst soundings again showing a fair amount of dry
air aloft which combined with very unstable conditions /MLCAPE
roughly 4-5000 J/Kg/ will again support strong damaging winds and
large hail as the primary threats.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Cold front should clear the area by early Tuesday morning, bringing
cooler, stable air into the forecast area for the following few
days. A shortwave trough will skirt south of the CWA on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, but any associated convection is expected to just
brush our southern border, if not stay completely out of the area. A
longwave trough will then dip through northern Missouri late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, reinforcing the seasonably cool, dry
air and helping to kick the southern system out of the state. A few
light showers are possible with the upper trough across northeast
Missouri, but should stay north and east of the CWA. Highs on
Tuesday may rebound a few degrees into the lower 80s, but after the
reinforcing shot of cooler air, highs Wednesday should top out only
in the 70s.

Temperatures may remain slightly below normal for Thursday while NW
flow lingers over the region, then upper-level ridging will begin to
build begin the trough and allow much warmer temperatures to build
back into the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible with a
shortwave trough crashing down through the eastern side of the ridge
Saturday and Sunday; otherwise, most of the long range forecast
should be mainly dry. The upper jet will remain well to the north
through the long range period, keeping shear minimal and the chance
of any organized severe weather low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Thunderstorms are dvlpg this evening from just west of STJ to just
west of TOP. Short-range models move these thunderstorm northeast
into the terminals between 01Z-04Z. Conds will remain VFR with
periodic MVFR cigs/vis in storms. Storms will move east of the
terminals by 04Z with scattered cu around 4-5kft expected for the
overnight hours. Tomorrow morning scattered cu around 2-3kft will
prevail until tomorrow evening when thunderstorms will again affect
the terminals. Winds tonight will be out of the south around 10kts.
Tomorrow morning winds will remain out of the south but become gusty
around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds tomorrow evening will veer to
the southwest while remaining gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
 AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED
 TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
 MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WITH ANY
 STORMS THAT DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED
 FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

 HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE ATCHISON          39.56N 95.10W
06/29/2014                   BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MISSOURI
            RIVER. HAS SINCE LIFTED.

&&

MELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOZ005>007-300245-
HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PUTNAM...MERCER AND
EASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAINSVILLE...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BETHANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PRINCETON...MERCER...MILL GROVE...SOUTH LINEVILLE...LUCERNE AND
  POWERSVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4038 9325 4038 9336 4033 9337 4028 9386
      4047 9387 4059 9358 4059 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 259DEG 31KT 4041 9366

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1010 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             NEWTOWN                 40.38N 93.33W
06/29/2014  E1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     TORNADO          5 ESE PRINCETON         40.37N 93.50W
06/29/2014                   MERCER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM SPOTTERS CONFIRM TREES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
            ON HIGHWAY E A COUPLE MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY C.

&&

MELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOZ020-021-300430-
BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-
1051 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND EASTERN
BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOWER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PLATTSBURG.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3970 9482 3975 9454 3975 9445 3955 9439
      3955 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 263DEG 20KT 3961 9459

AEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW NEWTOWN           40.36N 93.43W
06/29/2014                   MERCER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES BLOCKING HIGHWAY E. POSSIBLE BARN
            DAMAGE

&&