Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Primary concern in the next several days will be severe storm
chances across the area. Ongoing convection will expand eastward
this afternoon and this evening, with additional redevelopment
possible in far eastern Kansas by early evening. MUCAPE in the
3000-4000 J/kg range and bulk shear around 50 kts will support
supercellular structures and very large hail. Storm bases are
currently around 5-6 kft, possibly also supporting damaging winds
but decreasing the tornado threat. A warm front currently stretching
southeast from Maryville through Marshall, MO will continue to lift
northeast, and may serve as the only focus for isolated tornado
potential this afternoon.

Storms will begin to weaken after dark as surface-based instability
decreases in the warm sector, and the warm front should lift into
IA. Any ongoing storms will begin to lift back to the north as the
low-level jet increases tonight, and could strengthen slightly
towards daybreak, but are not expected to become severe.

For Sunday, most daytime severe activity should focus along the warm
front in southern Iowa, far southeast Nebraska, and possibly
portions of northeast Kansas. These storms will very likely be
severe along the warm front, but should stay mainly north of the CWA
until the boundary starts pushing southeastward after 00z. The main
hazards should be damaging winds and perhaps some severe hail as the
storms make their southeastward push later in the evening, and the
most likely period for severe weather on Sunday for the majority of
the CWA should be between 8 PM - 2 AM along the cold frontal
boundary.

The boundary may still linger in the far southeastern CWA when it
re-fires on Monday afternoon, but the period for any strong to
severe storms will be rather brief. Afterward, a few post-frontal
showers may linger across central MO, but much quieter and cooler
conditions are expected.

Little to no change to the extended forecast period. The main story
for most of next week will be cooler temperatures and a few small
chances for light rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area for the next few
hours, then should gradually begin to weaken after 03z. Another area
of showers and thunderstorms may develop across eastern Kansas and
west central Missouri, lifting northward between 06z and 12z, but the
uncertainty is too large with this line to add more than VCTS at any
of the TAF sites. Most of the area should be clearing out after 12z
Sunday, and should stay storm-free until after 00z Sunday evening.
Large hail and damaging winds are possible with the isolated storms
this evening, and will be possible again with the storms on Sunday
evening after 00z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111730-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...SOME DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
 OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
 WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              39.39N 94.58W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             ALBANY                  40.25N 94.33W
05/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       GENTRY             MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             WAVERLY                 39.59N 89.95W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF AND ON QUARTER-SIZED HAIL OVER THE LAST TWENTY
            MINUTES REPORTED.

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             ETHEL                   39.89N 92.74W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
711 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             3 W TRENTON             40.08N 93.66W
05/10/2014  E4.25 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED NEAR CROWDER STATE PARK. POWER LINES ALSO
            REPORTED DOWN IN WEST TRENTON AT 515PM.

&&

MELL

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