Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT BOWING SVR MCS ONGOING ACRS THE CWA. TORNADO AND FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE NEW HIRES
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE SVR CONVECTION MAY BLOW
THROUGH THE CWA AND BE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY 02Z THIS EVENING. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
BEHIND THE MAIN ONGOING LINE AS FORCING AND LLVL JET FEED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO INTERACT AND RIDE UP OVER
LINGERING COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS
OF COURSE WILL ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING
WHERE LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURS. CLEAR OUT TOTALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOPEFULLY...BUT WATER ISSUES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. AFTER A QUIET MORNING ON TUE...SCTRD SHOWERS UNDER UPPER
TROF SHEARING ACRS THE MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...THE 70S MORE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH WHERE
CLOUD COVER INCREASES EARLIER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BRIEF OVERVIEW...WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS/TEMPS FOR THE MID
WEEK STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TAP. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON WED UNDER COOL CORE UPPER
TROF. CLEAR OUT FOR THU INTO FRI AS BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
SHIFT ACRS THE REGION. IT STILL APPEARS IDEAL 4TH OF JULY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING/RETURN FLOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS LATE FRI
NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RVR. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP VORTS/UPPER
WAVES ACRS PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON FOR A
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD AGAIN. STILL SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR
SAT AND SUNDAY...BUT WARMING TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. OMINOUS SHELF
CLOUD NOW OUT THE WINDOW LOOKING WEST OF THE OFFICE...TIME TO SEND
THIS DISCUSSION.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
01/04Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
AS COOL FRONT PASSES WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES
TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT-BKN-OVC COVERAGE OF CIGS
3-4K AGL AND GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS UPGRADED AN EXPANDED EARLIER TODAY. SOME
CRESTS MAY APPROACH OR GET INTO THE TOP 5 RECORD CRESTS EVER
RECORDED FOR SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVER FORECAST SITES...DEPENDING ON
IF THE BASINS GET 1 TO 3+ INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. MAJOR FLOODING EXPANDED ON THE MAIN STEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT STATED...THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION!
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FULL
DETAILS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
HYDROLOGY...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING A VERY IMPORTANT
DAY TO BE A STORM SPOTTER. AFTER THE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINS
THIS PAST NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE HIGHEST IN SATURATED
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA...AND NORTH OF
GALESBURG IN ILLINOIS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THIS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND MOVE
EAST...AS THEY FORM INTO ANOTHER LARGE BOWING LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STORM
DAMAGE...AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE CONDUCTED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     BERNARD                 42.31N 90.83W
06/30/2014  E90 MPH          DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 80 TO 90 MPH BASED ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN
            TOWN.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WHITTIER            42.10N 91.45W
06/30/2014                   LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES UPROOTED AND OUTBUILDINGS DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLIN                    42.00N 91.14W
06/30/2014  E50 MPH          JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 45 TO 50 MPH...NO DISCERNABLE DAMAGE.

&&

BILLN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
745 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MUSCATINE         41.42N 91.05W
06/30/2014  E50 MPH          MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

BILLN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
749 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ054-066-010145-
JACKSON IA-CLINTON IA-
749 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...MOVING ACROSS JACKSON AND CLINTON
COUNTIES.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND RAINFALL OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 845 PM.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 9041 4228 9043 4223 9040 4216 9022
      4212 9016 4199 9014 4181 9018 4173 9032
      4173 9036 4174 9043 4178 9047 4176 9068
      4174 9072 4177 9079 4177 9090 4229 9090
      4229 9067 4238 9066 4238 9048

08