Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT BOWING SVR MCS ONGOING ACRS THE CWA. TORNADO AND FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE NEW HIRES
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE SVR CONVECTION MAY BLOW
THROUGH THE CWA AND BE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY 02Z THIS EVENING. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
BEHIND THE MAIN ONGOING LINE AS FORCING AND LLVL JET FEED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO INTERACT AND RIDE UP OVER
LINGERING COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS
OF COURSE WILL ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING
WHERE LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURS. CLEAR OUT TOTALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOPEFULLY...BUT WATER ISSUES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. AFTER A QUIET MORNING ON TUE...SCTRD SHOWERS UNDER UPPER
TROF SHEARING ACRS THE MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...THE 70S MORE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH WHERE
CLOUD COVER INCREASES EARLIER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BRIEF OVERVIEW...WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS/TEMPS FOR THE MID
WEEK STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TAP. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON WED UNDER COOL CORE UPPER
TROF. CLEAR OUT FOR THU INTO FRI AS BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
SHIFT ACRS THE REGION. IT STILL APPEARS IDEAL 4TH OF JULY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING/RETURN FLOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS LATE FRI
NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RVR. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP VORTS/UPPER
WAVES ACRS PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON FOR A
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD AGAIN. STILL SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR
SAT AND SUNDAY...BUT WARMING TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. OMINOUS SHELF
CLOUD NOW OUT THE WINDOW LOOKING WEST OF THE OFFICE...TIME TO SEND
THIS DISCUSSION.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
01/04Z AS A COOL FRONT PASSES WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
AS COOL FRONT PASSES WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES
TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT-BKN-OVC COVERAGE OF CIGS
3-4K AGL AND GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS UPGRADED AN EXPANDED EARLIER TODAY. SOME
CRESTS MAY APPROACH OR GET INTO THE TOP 5 RECORD CRESTS EVER
RECORDED FOR SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVER FORECAST SITES...DEPENDING ON
IF THE BASINS GET 1 TO 3+ INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. MAJOR FLOODING EXPANDED ON THE MAIN STEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT STATED...THIS IS A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION!
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FULL
DETAILS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
HYDROLOGY...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
358 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING A VERY IMPORTANT
DAY TO BE A STORM SPOTTER. AFTER THE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINS
THIS PAST NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE HIGHEST IN SATURATED
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA...AND NORTH OF
GALESBURG IN ILLINOIS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THIS VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND MOVE
EAST...AS THEY FORM INTO ANOTHER LARGE BOWING LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STORM
DAMAGE...AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE CONDUCTED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
915 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW MUSCATINE         41.44N 91.08W
06/30/2014  M4.03 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FOR TODAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
926 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
06/30/2014  E45 MPH          SCOTLAND           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTIES REPORT 30 TO 45 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE COUNTY THE
            PAST 10 MINUTES.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
927 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W BETTENDORF          41.56N 90.49W
06/30/2014  M3.72 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

MCCLURE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
930 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCK FALLS              41.77N 89.69W
06/30/2014                   WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING UP TO CAR DOORS.

0926 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW MORRISON          41.81N 89.98W
06/30/2014  M2.60 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

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