Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
318 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NOW THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 25-30 KNOTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AS
STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL BE A BIGGER CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES WITHIN BEST PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
FUNNELING NORTHEAST INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION RIDES NORTHEAST
INTO AREA WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA...THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AND FOCUS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I 69...AND ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE M 59 AND I 94
CORRIDORS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE M 59 COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CENTERED ON THE METRO DETROIT
AREA AS RUNOFF IN THE URBAN AREAS IS ENHANCED. A BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE AREA ACTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE ACTUALLY PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FROM
LATE THIS WEEK ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. IN FACT...90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

THIS BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK AS
THE TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OCCURS AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND MAINTAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

IN GENERAL...HOWEVER...WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REMAIN IN CHECK THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 133 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...
ONGOING DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST MICHIGAN
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TERMINAL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MINOR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AFFECTING MBS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
WINDS WILL GUST TOWARD 20KTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TONIGHT TO AT LEAST GET SOME
LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO A DIURNAL CLOUD FIELD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SETTLE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 22-01Z TIME PERIOD. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
GUSTS TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE WEST WITH THE LINE AS IT PINCHES IN ON
THE TERMINAL. LIGHT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT PERIODICALLY THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076...UNTIL 10 PM
     TUESDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MANN

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED STORM MOTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-200815-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
336 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FROM ROUGHLY I
69 SOUTH WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT CENTERED ON THE
METRO DETROIT AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES
ON SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL OF ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST
TO EAST AT 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
AND UNSTABLE AIR BLANKETS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-200815-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
336 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FROM LAKE ST
CLAIR SOUTHWARD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES
ON SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND HAIL OF ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST
TO EAST AT 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND
UNSTABLE AIR BLANKETS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MIZ054-055-192145-
SANILAC-TUSCOLA-
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROWN CITY TO
VASSAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARLETTE BY 450 PM EDT...
  PECK AND QUANICASSEE BY 455 PM EDT...
  FAIRGROVE BY 500 PM EDT...
  KINGSTON BY 505 PM EDT...
  AKRON AND CARO BY 510 PM EDT...
  APPLEGATE AND SANDUSKY BY 520 PM EDT...
  UNIONVILLE AND CARSONVILLE BY 525 PM EDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SF/JVC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
448 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE CLIO              43.12N 83.69W
08/19/2014  E0.75 INCH       GENESEE            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING N.SAGINAW STREET AND MT. MORRIS RD.
            RAINFALL AMOUNT RADAR ESTIMATED FOR A 1 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

DELLIOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
456 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MIZ075-076-082-083-192200-
LENAWEE-MONROE-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
456 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHELSEA TO 16 MILES WEST OF MORENCI...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ONSTED AND CHELSEA BY 510 PM EDT...
  CLAYTON BY 515 PM EDT...
  MANCHESTER BY 520 PM EDT...
  MORENCI AND DEXTER BY 525 PM EDT...
  CLINTON AND ADRIAN BY 530 PM EDT...
  TECUMSEH BY 535 PM EDT...
  SALINE AND ANN ARBOR BY 545 PM EDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

SF/JVC

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