Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA NOW. HOPWRF AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS OUR WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISO SEVERE POSSIBLE. MAY LATER GO CAT POPS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR OF MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE...WAITING TO SEE HOW LONG
THEY HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN SOME REMAINING CAP ALOFT./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY EARLY/MID EVENING. NAM TRIES TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND NOSE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MESO PARAMETERS SUGGEST DECENT
CAPE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO PAGE HAVE DECENT CINH IN PLACE
AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA AS LLJ KICKS IN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z-09Z WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM ERN NE/SE SD LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH THE CWA
IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 60...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
ONLY DROPPING INTO 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE EITHER AROUND MON
OR TUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF IA
AT ONSET OF PERIOD /12Z/ ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
CONVECTION MAY BE BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW IA AS WELL. LOBE OF WEAKER
FORCING WILL THEN LIFT INTO IA 18Z-00Z COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET AND AT FIRST GLANCE THIS SHOULD HELP OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONDUCIVE HOWEVER. MLCIN
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME THAT THE MLCAPE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MN. THUS THE WINDOW WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COUPLED
WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SMALL.  THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINLY THERE WITH
DEEP SHEAR PUSHING 50KTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE FRONT AXIS
THAN LINE NORMAL SO CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
RATHER THAN DISCRETE AND IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVEN
DIMINISHED LARGE SCALE FORCING AS IT BEGINS TO SPLIT.  THIS SHOULD
LEAD INTO FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRI BEFORE A RETURN
TO MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  ALTHOUGH GREENNESS TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIP
MAY REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT...SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT DEEP MIXING AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FRIDAY THAT COULD ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF HOLDING FRONT BACK INTO SERN IA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGER PERIOD WITH POPS FAVORING
THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDS OUR POPS BY TUE
HOWEVER SO THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.  PERSISTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CONUS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
TEMP EXTREMES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ESSENTIALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AFFECTING
KFOD...KMCW...AND KALO TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A BREAK
PRIOR TO NEXT ROUND BEGINNING BETWEEN 16-18Z CENTRAL/WEST AND
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH DAY BY 23-00Z WITH KOTM POSSIBLY SEEING
ADDTIONAL THUNDER AFT 00 THROUGH 04Z. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT TIMED OUT
DAYTIME THUNDER OTHER THAN VCTS DUE TO CONFIDENCE CONCERNS. SOUTH
WINDS REMAIN BRISK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. AGAIN...SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM 16Z THROUGH 04Z FROM
WEST TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT PACKAGE WILL BETTER DEFINE COVERAGE/TIMING
OF CONVECTION. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

IAZ023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-082-092-093-090145-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED OVERNIGHT
...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT INTERVALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED IN THE
COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-025>028-036>039-048>050-060>062-073>075-
083>086-094>097-090145-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT INTERVALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED IN THE
COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REV

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E FONDA               42.58N 94.82W
05/07/2014                   POCAHONTAS         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT BLEW A ROOF OFF
            OF A SHED.

&&

FBOKSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     ALGONA AIRPORT          43.08N 94.27W
05/08/2014  M77 MPH          KOSSUTH            IA   AWOS

&&

MS MAY 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1246 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     ALGONA AIRPORT          43.08N 94.27W
05/08/2014  M66 MPH          KOSSUTH            IA   AWOS

&&

MS MAY 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
102 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

IAZ044>046-057-058-080630-
GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-CARROLL IA-CRAWFORD IA-GREENE IA-
102 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING INTO
THE AREA...

AT 101 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF HARLAN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF AUDUBON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUDUBON...MANNING...COON RAPIDS...MANILLA...ELK HORN...ARCADIA...
BAYARD...TEMPLETON...KIMBALLTON...WESTSIDE...DEDHAM...HALBUR...
WILLEY...GRAY...ASPINWALL...AUDUBON COUNTY AIRPORT AND MANNING
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4216 9512 4183 9453 4158 9504 4160 9504
      4160 9509 4186 9509 4187 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 224DEG 48KT 4166 9517

MS MAR 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
113 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

IAZ023-033-034-044-045-080645-
CARROLL IA-CRAWFORD IA-SAC IA-POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
113 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...

AT 112 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKE VIEW...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAC CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAC CITY...ROCKWELL CITY...LAKE VIEW...NORTH TWIN LAKE...SOUTH TWIN
LAKE...BLACK HAWK LAKE...WALL LAKE...POMEROY...FONDA...EARLY...
BREDA...TWIN LAKES...AUBURN...LYTTON...NEMAHA...JOLLEY...YETTER...SAC
CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...BLACKHAWK LAKE STATE PARK AND TWIN LAKES
STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 4256 9513 4256 9492 4265 9491 4244 9446
      4211 9509 4223 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 224DEG 48KT 4223 9511

MS