Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Des Moines, IA

568 
WWUS53 KDMX 080253
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

IAC027-047-161-080315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140508T0315Z/
CRAWFORD IA-CARROLL IA-SAC IA-
953 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND SAC COUNTIES...

AT 953 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE VIEW...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAC CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAC CITY...LAKE VIEW...ODEBOLT...BLACK HAWK LAKE...WALL LAKE...
EARLY...BREDA...VAIL...LYTTON...KIRON...DELOIT...SAC CITY MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...BLACKHAWK LAKE STATE PARK AND WALL LAKE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9533 4242 9533 4252 9523 4243 9486
      4228 9486 4203 9519 4209 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 222DEG 27KT 4222 9515 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PODRAZIK

583 
WWUS53 KDMX 080305
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

IAC027-047-080314-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140508T0315Z/
CRAWFORD IA-CARROLL IA-

1005 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4248 9509 4243 9486 4228 9486 4221 9498
      4221 9516 4224 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 219DEG 27KT 4226 9503 

$$

IAC161-080315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140508T0315Z/
SAC IA-
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAC COUNTY...

AT 1004 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BLACK HAWK
LAKE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF SAC CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAC CITY...LAKE VIEW...BLACK HAWK LAKE...WALL LAKE...LYTTON...SAC
CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...BLACKHAWK LAKE STATE PARK AND WALL LAKE
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4248 9509 4243 9486 4228 9486 4221 9498
      4221 9516 4224 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 219DEG 27KT 4226 9503 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS AND NEBRASKA MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA NOW. HOPWRF AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS OUR WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ISO SEVERE POSSIBLE. MAY LATER GO CAT POPS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR OF MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE...WAITING TO SEE HOW LONG
THEY HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN SOME REMAINING CAP ALOFT./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY EARLY/MID EVENING. NAM TRIES TO
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND NOSE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MESO PARAMETERS SUGGEST DECENT
CAPE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO PAGE HAVE DECENT CINH IN PLACE
AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
INTO MINNESOTA AS LLJ KICKS IN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z-09Z WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM ERN NE/SE SD LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH THE CWA
IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 60...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
ONLY DROPPING INTO 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE EITHER AROUND MON
OR TUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOMORROW HOWEVER WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF IA
AT ONSET OF PERIOD /12Z/ ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
CONVECTION MAY BE BRUSHING PORTIONS OF NW IA AS WELL. LOBE OF WEAKER
FORCING WILL THEN LIFT INTO IA 18Z-00Z COINCIDENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET AND AT FIRST GLANCE THIS SHOULD HELP OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONDUCIVE HOWEVER. MLCIN
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME THAT THE MLCAPE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
MN. THUS THE WINDOW WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COUPLED
WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SMALL.  THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL AND CERTAINLY THERE WITH
DEEP SHEAR PUSHING 50KTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED CLOSER TO THE FRONT AXIS
THAN LINE NORMAL SO CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR
RATHER THAN DISCRETE AND IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVEN
DIMINISHED LARGE SCALE FORCING AS IT BEGINS TO SPLIT.  THIS SHOULD
LEAD INTO FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRI BEFORE A RETURN
TO MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  ALTHOUGH GREENNESS TRENDS AND RECENT PRECIP
MAY REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT...SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT DEEP MIXING AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FRIDAY THAT COULD ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY DEEP THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF HOLDING FRONT BACK INTO SERN IA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGER PERIOD WITH POPS FAVORING
THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDS OUR POPS BY TUE
HOWEVER SO THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.  PERSISTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CONUS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY
TEMP EXTREMES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ESSENTIALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...08/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND AND THUNDER. VERY ISO
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS ATTM AND
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THOUGH CAP IS PRETTY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ADDITIONAL EVE THUNDER POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE 12KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
AGAIN THURSDAY WITH GUST 30KTS AFT 14Z MOST AREAS. THUNDER CHANCES
MAY OCCUR AFT 09Z NORTHEAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MAIN
WAVE APPROACHING FROM WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT AREA FROM 16-18Z
WEST...18Z AND BEYOND EAST HALF THUR. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
SINCE FORCING UNCERTAINTY AND INITIATION TIME DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR EVENING TRENDS AND UPDATE FOR OVN
TRENDS WITH NEXT PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

IAZ023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-082-092-093-090145-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED OVERNIGHT
...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT INTERVALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED IN THE
COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-025>028-036>039-048>050-060>062-073>075-
083>086-094>097-090145-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT INTERVALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED IN THE
COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
903 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

IAZ033-044-045-057-080315-
SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAC CITY...LAKE VIEW...ODEBOLT...
WALL LAKE...SCHALLER...EARLY...DENISON...CARROLL...AUDUBON...
EXIRA
903 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN IOWA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD CRAWFORD COUNTY AND MAY AFFECT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...OR BY ABOUT 10 PM CDT THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POTENTIALLY HAIL AND WIND MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BE ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME
THERE ARE NO WATCHES IN EFFECT...BUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

REV