Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren't handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.

For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.

For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  87  67  89 /  70  30  40  20
GCK  64  89  67  90 /  70  20  40  20
EHA  61  89  66  93 /  50  20  30  10
LBL  63  89  68  92 /  70  20  30  20
HYS  64  87  67  88 /  70  30  60  30
P28  67  87  68  89 /  70  40  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
519 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014 /419 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AS LARGE AS TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY
EVENING, MAINLY UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 E GARDEN CITY         37.98N 100.77W
06/24/2014  M68 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

&&

06

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