Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Dodge City, KS

193 
WWUS53 KDDC 142128
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
428 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSC007-033-151-142200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-140714T2200Z/
PRATT KS-BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-
428 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
COMANCHE...BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 423 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CITY...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF AROUND    
         70 MPH WAS REPORTED IN SUN CITY AT 419 PM CDT.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDICINE LODGE...HARDTNER...AETNA...SHARON...KIOWA AND HAZELTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9910 3746 9898 3761 9850 3744 9845
      3739 9846 3739 9844 3700 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 342DEG 16KT 3735 9881

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

JJOHNSON

269 
WWUS53 KDDC 142154
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSC007-033-151-142203-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-140714T2200Z/
PRATT KS-BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-
454 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE...BARBER
AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT/400 PM
MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN DODGE CITY.

LAT...LON 3700 9910 3746 9898 3761 9850 3744 9845
      3739 9846 3739 9844 3700 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 342DEG 16KT 3724 9876

$$

JJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

Short range models indicate the large scale closed off upper level
low dropping southeast across Wisconsin into Michigan tonight while
upper level ridging breaks down across the Intermountain West. Within
the larger scale upper level trough, an H5 vort lobe is projected to
shift southeast across the Upper Midwest through early Tuesday
morning. This will help push an attendant cold front southward out
of Kansas into northern Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle this
evening. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along and in the
vicinity of the advancing cold front may become more numerous
through early this evening as a +80kt upper level jet moves south
out of the Dakotas into Nebraska and much of western Kansas.
Steepening low/mid level lapse rates ahead of the cold front and
CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/Kg may be enough to support strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter to
golf ball size hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph through
late this evening. Any thunderstorms are expected to dissipate or
move southward into Oklahoma overnight with drier conditions
likely Tuesday as the cold front moves further south into the
Texas panhandle.

Below seasonal temperatures are likely tonight and Tuesday as much
cooler air filters south-southwest into western Kansas behind a
departing cold front moving into northern Oklahoma. The NAM/GFS
show H85 temperatures dropping to around 10C across central Kansas
with the mid teens(C) closer to the Colorado border. As surface
dewpoints drop well down into the 50s(F), look for lows down into
the lower to mid 50s(F) across central Kansas to near 60F closer
to the Oklahoma border. As the cooler air mass settles into
western Kansas, highs can be expected to reach only up into the
70s(F) across much of central and southwest Kansas Tuesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

Starting Tuesday night, there will be increasing chances for rain
and a few thunderstorms, through Thursday.  A significant short wave
trough will be positioned over northern Kansas Tuesday, and develop
southwestward into southwest Kansas through Wednesday.  Along with
this upper low, a good amount of cold air near the surface will
sink into central Kansas as a high pressure area . Thus, highs on
Wednesday will only reach the mid 60s in the Scott City area, the
mid to upper 60s in the Dodge City, Garden City and Larned areas.
There will be some warm air edging north from New Mexico and the
western Texas panhandle into our far southwest corner, so I raised
maximum temperatures there for Wednesday, into the mid 70s, but
only for a small area in and around Morton county. This will place
a sharp temperature gradient to the northeast of there.  The upper
trough will still be lingering over our CWA Thursday, and
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible. Thursday does not
look too warm either, with highs in most places in the mid 70s.

The precipitation chances will end late Thursday and move off to the
east.  This will change the pattern aloft, going from a trough
pattern to the High pressure pattern, with the upper high pressure
building back northeastward from the southwestern U.S.  Our
maximum temperatures will go up, into the lower to mid 80s on
Friday, the lower to mid 90s on both Saturday and Sunday, then
rise to the mid to upper 90s by Monday. Late Saturday, there is a
lee side trough which moves into western Kansas, which brings 20
percent slight chances for thunderstorms to our far west counties.
Another short wave aloft kicks through Saturday night across
central Kansas, and 20 to 30 percent PoPs are across our eastern
2/3rds of the forecast area. This is a quick moving upper wave and
precipitation chances will be gone by Sunday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

A few thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC
through this evening as a cold front pushes southward across the
area. These storms may produce brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Winds will turn northeasterly 15 to 25kt this afternoon
as a cold front moves southward across western Kansas. Winds will
then subside tonight while becoming more easterly as surface high
pressure shifts southward out of the Northern Plains into Kansas
behind the departing front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  78  56  67 /  30  30  60  70
GCK  58  78  56  68 /  30  40  70  70
EHA  60  80  60  76 /  40  40  60  60
LBL  60  78  59  71 /  40  40  70  70
HYS  55  75  56  68 /  20  20  60  60
P28  58  78  59  71 /  40  20  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-151145-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
446 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 /346 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO LARNED. THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W RICHFIELD           37.26N 101.85W
07/14/2014                   MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS FOUR TO FIVE INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE BLOWN
            DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

&&

LRUTHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW RICHFIELD          37.26N 101.79W
07/14/2014  E60 MPH          MORTON             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DWOLFE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKHART                 37.00N 101.89W
07/14/2014  M63 MPH          MORTON             KS   AWOS

&&

LRUTHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKHART                 37.00N 101.89W
07/14/2014  M77.00 MPH       MORTON             KS   AWOS

            THE WIND WAS MEASURED AT THE ELKHART AMOS SITE.

&&

LRUTHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSZ066-079>081-089-090-142100-
BARBER-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-STAFFORD-
320 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN
COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN BARBER...PRATT...SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND
SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOPEWELL...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN
BARBER...PRATT...SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HOPEWELL AND CULLISON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3746 9847 3738 9906 3784 9910 3789 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 345DEG 16KT 3777 9896

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     HAIL             5 W FETERITA            37.14N 101.57W
07/14/2014  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

WHOVORKA