Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS State College, PA

065 
WWUS51 KCTP 132115
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

PAC023-033-047-132145-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-140713T2145Z/
ELK PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELK...SOUTH CENTRAL CAMERON AND NORTHERN CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORCE TO NEAR MEDIX RUN TO NEAR PENFIELD TO NEAR
REYNOLDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...SANDY...WOODLAND...PENFIELD...HYDE...
PLYMPTONVILLE...ROCKTON...KARTHAUS...FORCE...BENEZETTE...LECONTES
MILLS...PARKER DAM STATE PARK...BROCKPORT...S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK...
MEDIX RUN...KERSEY...WEEDVILLE...DRIFTWOOD AND TREASURE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7814 4113 7811 4106 7820 4097 7836
      4107 7881 4113 7881 4118 7878 4120 7877
      4120 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874 4127 7874
      4128 7876 4129 7875 4132 7868 4136 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 269DEG 36KT 4132 7856 4131 7847 4123 7854 4108
7889

$$

LAMBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY...BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A PAIR OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE EARLIER...EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD DECK AND AREAS OF FAIRLY WEAK
CONVECTION CAUSED THE ATMOS TO TEMPORARILY STABILIZE WITHIN A BELT
OF WARM 700 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 8C. AS LLVL SWRLY FLOW...AND PWATS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WE/LL SEE AN
INCREASING TREND OF SHOWER/TSRA COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

THIS INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NWRN HALF
OF PENN OVERNIGHT...THEN ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT INTO A WEAK STNRY
BOUNDARY AS THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...MID SUMMER TROUGH RELOADS
WITH ENERGY WELL TO OUR NW.

AS THE DEVELOPING TSRA TO OUR WEST MOVE INTO THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING /WITH POCKETS OF 0-1 KM EHI EXCEEDING 2 M2/S2/...SOME
TSRA WILL DEVELOP TRANSIENT MESO. SOME OF THE LONGER-LASTING
SUPERCELLS COULD SPAWN 1 OR 2 BRIEF TORNADOES....ESP ACROSS THE NW
AND NCENT MTNS OF PENN WHERE LCL HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 1 KM AGL.

OTHERWISE...MINI BOW ECHOES WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SCATTERED...MULTI-CELL /OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF SUPERCELL/ TSRA IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN...WITH
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TSRA CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE STRETCHING OUT IN A MORE
EAST/WEST DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT.

LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER
HIGH...SO SERIOUS HYDRO PROBLEMS/FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL TSRA.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEG F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ZONES...WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT A RELATIVE MIN THROUGH ABOUT
22Z.

LATER TONIGHT...THE LLVL JET LIFTS TO THE NE OF THE REGION...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF WEAK UVVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SITUATED BENEATH THE BROADLY DIFFLUENT
WRLY UPPER FLOW/.

AFTER THE EVENING TSRA DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHRA AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIPPLES NE ACROSS CENTRAL OR WRN PENN ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT. THE SERN THIRD
/TO PERHAPS SE HALF/ OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR SVR TSRA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/OR LOW-TOPPED TSRA ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PENN.

MAX TEMPS WILL SLIDE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...BUT TOP OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY 00ZZ TUESDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THE EC HAS IT FURTHEST SOUTH...THE NAM THE FURTHEST
NORTH...AND THE GFS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING 850MB TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD DEEPEN INTO TUESDAY...WHERE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL SHIFT
INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PWAT ANOMALIES AND DECENT LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...MAINLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY DUE TO
ADDITIONAL ENERGY THAT SHOULD BE DRIVING SSE INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROUGH.

THE PATTERN OVER THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA APPEARS TO DE-
AMPLIFY BY MID WEEK THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT
TO THE NE AND DRY AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
EITHER OF THOSE TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING IN COOL TO AT LEAST 4-6F BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LATE THIS WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY...WHERE ALL LONG
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTS TO THE
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST MTNS OF PENN /THEN CENTRAL COUNTIES/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR AN INCREASING TREND IN
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WRN PENN TAF SITES/ AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO.

AIRFIELDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WILL OCCUR
LATE TODAY...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR LATER TONIGHT...DECREASING WIND...AREAS OF CLEARING WILL
COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC DEWPOINTS OF
65-70F TO CREATE AT LEAST PATCHY 2SM FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA WITH MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR TO MVFR.

TUES-WED...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT...AND PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-142030-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004-005-142030-
WARREN-MCKEAN-
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

PAZ004-131900-
WARREN PA-
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 214 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR I-86 EXIT 9 TO NEAR GUYS MILLS TO NEAR
GREENVILLE EAST...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAND VALLEY AROUND 240 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE TIDIOUTE...SUGAR
GROVE...CLARENDON...BEAR LAKE AND STARBRICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4191 7892 4163 7918 4163 7961
      4198 7961 4200 7959
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 275DEG 30KT 4213 7939 4162 7984 4141 8025

LA CORTE