Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION MINIMUM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST. EDGED TEMPS FOR TODAY UPWARD AS
LIMITED CLOUDS ALLOWING LOW LEVELS TO WARM NICELY...88F AT
HARRISBURG AT 17Z.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS IN
STORE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE
SURGES IN ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET INTO W PA /DEWPOINT
INCREASES ON THE ORDER OF 5-8F/...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND STRONG JET STREAK AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD BRING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO W PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KMDT AND SOUTHWARD. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SW PORTION OF CWA...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG PA TURNPIKE HEADING EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE /TAPPING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG
CAPE/ WITH ISO HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO BEING
POTENTIALLY SLOWER MOVERS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. IN NORTHEAST POART OF CWA...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SINGLE STRONG SQUALL LINE
OR SMALLER BROKEN SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM
AND THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING IT...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. WITH THE 850 LOW AND
JET EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN PA...THE STRONG VEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND HELICITY SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING
A RAPID END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF
SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK
ABOUT ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENCHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PAZ004-010-017>019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-281845-
WARREN-ELK-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ005-006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-281845-
MCKEAN-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             MCCONNELLSTOWN          40.45N  78.08W
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       HUNTINGDON         PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400273

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     MECHANICSBURG           40.21N  77.01W
07/27/2014  E65 MPH          CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400275

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             MCCONNELLSTOWN          40.45N  78.08W
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       HUNTINGDON         PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOSERVILLE             40.24N  77.32W
07/27/2014                   CUMBERLAND         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     MECHANICSBURG           40.21N  77.01W
07/27/2014  E65 MPH          CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0635 PM     HAIL             SHIREMANSTOWN           40.22N  76.96W
07/27/2014  M0.88 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM     HAIL             MECHANICSBURG           40.21N  77.01W
07/27/2014  M0.70 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400273 CTP1400272 CTP1400275 CTP1400276 CTP1400274

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROARING SPRING          40.33N  78.40W
07/27/2014                   BLAIR              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400277

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECHANICSBURG           40.21N  77.01W
07/27/2014                   CUMBERLAND         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400278

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PAZ065-066-280015-
YORK PA-LANCASTER PA-
743 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 743 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
YORKANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WRIGHTSVILLE AROUND 750 PM EDT.
  COLUMBIA AROUND 800 PM EDT.
  LANCASTER...MILLERSVILLE AND MOUNTVILLE AROUND 810 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST PROSPECT...
WASHINGTON BORO...MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY AND FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL
COLLEGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 7662 4001 7672 4005 7648 4010 7617
      3992 7640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 236DEG 19KT 3998 7658

RXR