River Flood Warning 10, NWS State College, PA

736 
WGUS81 KCTP 162206
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

PAC099-170813-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140517T0813Z/
/SMDP1.2.ER.140516T1134Z.140516T1700Z.140517T0213Z.NO/
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 5 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD AND OTHER LOW 
  LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO SHERMAN CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 7726 4035 7719 4037 7713 4036 7709
      4031 7716 4031 7725             

$$

PAC109-119-171006-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140517T1600Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140516T1845Z.140517T1000Z.NO/
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK.
* AT 6 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER OVERFLOWS BOTH BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES AND 
  COTTAGES ON THE LEFT OR NORTH BANK ARE AFFECTED. MANY SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE CREEK ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

PAC041-171006-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T0355Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1200Z.140517T2155Z.NO/
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 6 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.5 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

PAC041-133-170600-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0009.140516T2203Z-140517T0600Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.140516T1508Z.140517T0000Z.140517T0000Z.UU/
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7686 4023 7685 4016 7689 4015 7693
      4018 7695 4023 7692 4023 7689   

$$

315 
WGUS81 KCTP 170752
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
352 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC109-119-171900-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140517T1900Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140516T1845Z.140517T1300Z.NO/
352 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
  ROUTE 104 BRIDGE. A CAMPGROUND IS AFFECTED. A NUMBER OF SECONDARY 
  ROADS IN THE PENNS CREEK DRAINAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

PAC041-171952-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T1100Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1200Z.140518T0500Z.NO/
352 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.4 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

PAC061-170822-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140517T2300Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.140517T0301Z.140517T0722Z.NO/
352 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 340 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 5.6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG EXCEEDS ITS 
  BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7789 4036 7782 4030 7783 4023 7788
      4025 7795 4032 7791             

$$

PAC099-170822-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140517T0813Z/
/SMDP1.2.ER.140516T1134Z.140516T1700Z.140517T0249Z.NO/
352 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11 PM FRIDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 3.8 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

LAT...LON 4036 7726 4035 7719 4037 7713 4036 7709
      4031 7716 4031 7725             

$$

406 
WGUS81 KCTP 171404
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1004 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

PAC041-180204-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T1300Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1030Z.140518T0700Z.NO/
1004 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* THROUGH TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

PAC041-133-172110-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0011.140517T1357Z-140517T2110Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.140517T1215Z.140517T1345Z.140517T1510Z.UU/
1004 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7686 4023 7685 4016 7689 4015 7693
      4018 7695 4023 7692 4023 7689   

$$

PAC109-119-171434-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140517T1900Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140516T1845Z.140517T1126Z.NO/
1004 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK.
* AT 9 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7 AM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 5.0 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
  ROUTE 104 BRIDGE. A CAMPGROUND IS AFFECTED. A NUMBER OF SECONDARY 
  ROADS IN THE PENNS CREEK DRAINAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7712 4089 7705 4089 7698 4086 7698
      4085 7706 4086 7711             

$$

EVANEGO

241 
WGUS81 KCTP 180322
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1122 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

PAC041-181522-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T2100Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1030Z.140518T1500Z.NO/
1122 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  MORNING TOMORROW.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

946 
WGUS81 KCTP 180622
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
222 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-181400-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1030Z.140518T0800Z.NO/
222 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

MARTIN

572 
WGUS81 KCTP 180827
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
427 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT.

&&

PAC041-180857-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140518T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.140516T2115Z.140517T1030Z.140518T0651Z.NO/
427 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 5.9 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING
  AND 4.9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7747 4028 7713 4031 7692 4023 7689
      4020 7715 4015 7748             

$$

MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR REGION USHERING IN COOLER
DRIER AIR. THE SLOW MOVING DEEP TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER TO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING OUT...AND BECOMING VERY LIGHT. RUC HAS THIS TREND WELL
HANDLED AND WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE SC MTS...BUT THE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO PBZ CWA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEST VERY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...BUT THE SUN WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE IN ALL
BUT THE SC MTS TODAY. TEMPS DOING WELL...SO NO BIG TWEAKS THERE.
SEE HYDRO.

PREV...
A SLOW MOVING...WAVY COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. STRONG FORCING UNDER THE INTENSE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ARE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ON A SSE LOW-MID LEVEL LEVEL JET OF
40-60KTS.

THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1.5-2.5"
RESULTS...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
AS WAVES OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RACE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

RUC TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOWS IT CLEARING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
COULD HANG UP OVER SERN PA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF MY MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
COUNTIES.

SOME ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR IS SLATED TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS OVER NW PA FALLING FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 40S POSSIBLE
BEFORE A SMALL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S TAKES PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THE DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME PASSING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS GROSS AS IT MAY
BE...850 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST BY 12Z...SO I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME NORMAL COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE A WET SNOW
FLAKE OR TWO MIX IN. I DON'T SEE IT AS BEING ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO MENTION SO IT WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
STAGE.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL. DAYTIMES HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH
STILL CYCLONIC ALOFT. SHOULD BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND FROST LIKELY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS
CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUSPECT FROST ADVISORIES COULD COME INTO
PLAY SHOULD THIS PATTERN AND FORECAST HOLD UP. TOO EARLY AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY COOL AND DRY SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MODEST MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WED-THU TIME FRAME AS A BIG RIDGE WITH CLOSE 5880 M HIGH
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN US...SUSPECT A HEAT WAVE/HEAT EPISODE WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL US. WE WILL BE ON FRINGE OF RIDGE AND WARMER
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PATTERN TO IMPLY CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU NOTHING BIG AND NOTHING EXCITING AT
THIS TIME.

OF INTEREST IS THE SURGE OF HIGH CAPE IN THE GEFS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ON WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS HIGH
CAPE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A EARLY WARM SEASON SEVERE TYPE.
THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE WEAK AS IS CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH
THE LAKES.

IT SHOULD COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY THU-SAT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA
STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES.

SO LONG RANGE WILL START OUT ON COOL SIDE SOME FROST POSSIBLE
SUN-TUE IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS. INCREASE CHANCE SHOWERS WED
INTO EARLY THURSDAY THEN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER AS WE ENTER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
TWEAKS MADE ONLY TO END TIMING OF THE RAIN AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LNS. IT WILL DRAG IT/S FEET THERE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED AND ARE
EVEN VFR AT MDT AND AOO...BUT BFD SANK BACK TO IFR UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW/STRATUS. ONLY JST MAY ALSO DO THAT FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTN...BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR CIGS
BY 18-19Z.

PREV...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THUS WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

OVERALL...A SE FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR IS KEEPING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOES MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE REAL FAST. IT MAY BE 21Z UNTIL THINGS
IMPROVE AT LNS.

THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS VERY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA..WITH 4-5 BULLSEYE OVER ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THE FLOODING CONTINUES THERE...BUT NEW FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT
ALREADY BEEN WARNED-FOR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SO...KILLED THE FF
WATCH FOR THE AREA. THE RAIN IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND ONLY
DRAGGING IT/S FEET IN THE FAR ERN COS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME EAST SHOULD BE A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

FLOODING HAS COMMENCED ON THE TRIBS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND
SHIRLEYSBURG. FOUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS GOING AT THIS POINT...AND
PERHAPS ONLY THE OTHER POINT TO EXCEED FLOOD WOULD BE THE SLOWER-
RESPONDING HOGESTOWN GAGE. THE BEECH CREEK AND RUSSELL GAGES ARE
MAINLY CONTROLLED BY UPSTREAM DAMS...AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD. BUT THESE ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. NO LARGE-RIVER POINTS SHOULD GET TO FLOOD...MANY TO
CAUTION STAGES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-045-171500-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

PAZ027-028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-171500-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. BUT LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNCANNON               40.40N  77.03W
05/15/2014                   PERRY              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR DUNCANNON

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S LIVERPOOL           40.50N  76.99W
05/15/2014                   PERRY              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HUGGINS ROAD

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
05/15/2014                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CARPORT BLOWN OVER. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

0602 AM     FLOOD            MOUNT PLEASANT          40.56N  77.38W
05/16/2014                   JUNIATA            PA   PEMA

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED IN WALKER TWP

0602 AM     FLOOD            SIGLERVILLE             40.74N  77.53W
05/16/2014                   MIFFLIN            PA   PEMA

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED IN ARMAGH TWP

0703 AM     FLOOD            SE CARLISLE             40.20N  77.20W
05/16/2014                   CUMBERLAND         PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WALNUT BOTTOM ROAD CLOSED WITH ONE STRANDED VEHICLE

0820 AM     FLOOD            2 E FAYETTEVILLE        39.91N  77.53W
05/16/2014                   FRANKLIN           PA   PEMA

            EVACUATIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER IN GREENE TWP.

0823 AM     FLOOD            2 N RAUCHTOWN           41.15N  77.24W
05/16/2014                   LYCOMING           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FOX ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0840 AM     FLOOD            CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
05/16/2014                   FRANKLIN           PA   PEMA

            SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS FRANKLIN
            COUNTY

0900 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLEBURY CENTER       41.84N  77.27W
05/16/2014                   TIOGA              PA   PEMA

            A STRETCH OF ROUTE 287 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN
            MIDDLEBURY TWP

0943 AM     FLOOD            HUNTINGDON              40.50N  78.01W
05/16/2014                   HUNTINGDON         PA   PEMA

            SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS HUNTINGDON COUNTY DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400012 CTP1400009 CTP1400008 CTP1400014 CTP1400015
CTP1400010 CTP1400016 CTP1400011 CTP1400013 CTP1400017 CTP1400018

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1007 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNCANNON               40.40N  77.03W
05/15/2014                   PERRY              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR DUNCANNON

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S LIVERPOOL           40.50N  76.99W
05/15/2014                   PERRY              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HUGGINS ROAD

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
05/15/2014                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CARPORT BLOWN OVER. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

0602 AM     FLOOD            MOUNT PLEASANT          40.56N  77.38W
05/16/2014                   JUNIATA            PA   PEMA

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED IN WALKER TWP

0602 AM     FLOOD            SIGLERVILLE             40.74N  77.53W
05/16/2014                   MIFFLIN            PA   PEMA

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED IN ARMAGH TWP

0703 AM     FLOOD            SE CARLISLE             40.20N  77.20W
05/16/2014                   CUMBERLAND         PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WALNUT BOTTOM ROAD CLOSED WITH ONE STRANDED VEHICLE

0708 AM     FLOOD            PHILLIPS                41.94N  77.48W
05/16/2014                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A STRETCH OF ROUTE 249 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN
            WESTFIELD TWP.

0708 AM     FLOOD            CHARLESTON              41.77N  77.24W
05/16/2014                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A STRETCH OF CHARLESTON RD WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
            IN CHARLESTON TWP

0737 AM     FLOOD            2 N SWEDEN VALLEY       41.79N  77.95W
05/16/2014                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A MUDSLIDE OCCURRED ALONG NORTH HOLLOW RD IN SWEDEN TWP

0820 AM     FLOOD            2 E FAYETTEVILLE        39.91N  77.53W
05/16/2014                   FRANKLIN           PA   PEMA

            EVACUATIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER IN GREENE TWP.

0823 AM     FLOOD            2 N RAUCHTOWN           41.15N  77.24W
05/16/2014                   LYCOMING           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FOX ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0840 AM     FLOOD            CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
05/16/2014                   FRANKLIN           PA   PEMA

            SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS FRANKLIN
            COUNTY

0900 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLEBURY CENTER       41.84N  77.27W
05/16/2014                   TIOGA              PA   PEMA

            A STRETCH OF ROUTE 287 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN
            MIDDLEBURY TWP

0943 AM     FLOOD            HUNTINGDON              40.50N  78.01W
05/16/2014                   HUNTINGDON         PA   PEMA

            SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS HUNTINGDON COUNTY DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1400012 CTP1400009 CTP1400008 CTP1400014 CTP1400015
CTP1400010 CTP1400019 CTP1400020 CTP1400021 CTP1400016 CTP1400011
CTP1400013 CTP1400017 CTP1400018

EVANEGO