Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST USHERING WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -6C AND CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.
RADAR SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE COLUMBIA AREA AT THIS
TIME ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE. THINK SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT THINK WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. STORM
MOTION FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINER STORMS WITH ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING
POSSIBLE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN GEORGIA POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE CSRA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SO WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE.

LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE EVENING TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THINK THE CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS...HOLDING
THEM UP A BIT AND ALSO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AREA AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THREAT OF SEVERE REMAINS
LOW AS FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS HIGH AND WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BE LIGHT. AS SUCH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE REGION. FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US. BY SUNDAY THE
FRONT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY MORNING TO
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK LIMITING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SUCH EXPECT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ONWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS AT FORECAST TIME
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. WILL CARRY VCSH
CAE/CUB WITH TEMPORARY -TSRA THROUGH 21Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN GEORGIA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE CSRA AND COULD
IMPACT THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS SO WILL INCLUDE TEMPORARY TSRA THERE
21Z TO 28/01Z. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
MPH WITH VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A BROKEN DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE ANYWAY. A 25 KNOT
FORECASTED LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THEN PICK
UP FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AROUND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
407 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-280815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
407 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
329 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 SSE COLUMBIA          33.97N 81.02W
05/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       RICHLAND           SC   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL AT WILLIAMS BRICE
            STADIUM RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

NWS COLUMBIA SC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

SCZ028-037-272045-
CALHOUN-RICHLAND-
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RICHLAND AND CALHOUN
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. MATTHEWS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES NEAR THE CONGAREE RIVER.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ST. MATTHEWS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR USE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.COLUMBIA.GOV TO RELAY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS. &&

LAT...LON 3374 8063 3373 8062 3363 8071 3373 8100
      3376 8092 3378 8096 3378 8101 3375 8104
      3375 8106 3383 8104 3391 8097 3384 8063
      3379 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 295DEG 20KT 3375 8080

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAYCE                   33.95N 81.05W
05/27/2014                   LEXINGTON          SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CAR IN THE EDENWOOD
            NEIGHBORHOOD IN CAYCE.

&&

NWS COLUMBIA SC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE CAYCE             33.95N 81.05W
05/27/2014  M50 MPH          LEXINGTON          SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            SCANA REPORTED A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND TREES
            AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

NWS COLUMBIA SC
IRIS SYSTEM

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