Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CHANGES CONSISTED PRIMARILY TO MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS THROUGH WEST EARLY THIS MORNING SLOWED
THE WESTERN DEVELOPMENT A BIT BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

A LARGE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MONTANA. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE EAST...BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GOOD SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ARE STILL PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES ON THE ORDER...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF 1000-2000J/KG IN THE EAST AND CLIMBING NUMBERS IN
THE WEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH MENTIONS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. THE ONLY
QUESTION MARK IS IF WE WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM
STRONG DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST
DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE.

THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL FOR MONDAY...BUT REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH GOOD
PWATS AVAILABLE AND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...FAVORING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...AND SHOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVELS
DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...SO EXPECT SOME INITIALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
TROF FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER POTENTIAL DECREASES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH DECREASED
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN ZONAL TYPE FLOW...BUT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD..AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/067 049/069 049/075 054/074 052/075 053/073 051/071
    67/T    44/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    23/T    33/T
LVM 046/066 040/068 044/074 046/071 044/073 044/073 044/069
    46/T    44/T    43/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 056/068 047/070 048/077 053/077 051/077 052/074 053/073
    67/T    44/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 056/070 051/070 049/075 054/075 055/076 054/072 054/073
    86/T    44/T    33/T    44/T    33/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 058/070 050/071 050/075 053/075 054/076 053/073 055/075
    86/T    34/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 055/068 050/068 048/072 051/072 052/073 052/070 053/068
    87/T    54/T    33/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 051/069 045/070 045/075 048/072 048/072 049/072 050/071
    66/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 29>33-35>39-56>58-67.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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