Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRISK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD MULTI BANDED LAKE SNOWS EAST
OF LAKE ERIE...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW IS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW THIS BAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEHIND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND NOW EXITING THE TIP OF NORTHERN CAYUGA AND DIRECTING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY.

DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A PERSISTENT FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS LARGELY
AVERAGING OUT IN THE -16C TO -19C RANGE THROUGH TODAY AND A GOOD
CHUNK OF TONIGHT...BEFORE STARTING TO SHOW JUST A LITTLE
MODERATION OVERNIGHT. COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINING THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...OFF LAKE ONTARIO A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SINGLE BAND CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE...LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 10 KFT...AND A WELL
ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FULL FETCH OF THE LAKE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND. EXPECTED BACKING OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SEND THE BAND NORTHWARD INTO JEFFERSON/
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES AND THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE LAKE SNOWS ALSO WEAKENING SOME AS THE
FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE SHORTENS UP A BIT...AND AS THE OROGRAPHIC
BOOST PROVIDED BY THE TUG HILL IS LOST. FROM THAT POINT ON...THE
BAND SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING SHEAR PERHAPS
CAUSING IT TO SPREAD OUT AND WEAKEN A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT.

THE ABOVE POTENTIAL WEAKENING STATED...WITH LAKE EQLS REMAINING IN
THE 10-12 KFT RANGE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING AVAILABLE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION...SEE NO REASON WHY
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS WON'T CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARNING-
CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 20 INCHES TO FALL WITHIN THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A BROADER AREA OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS JEFFERSON/NORTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH WINDS OF 15-30 MPH LEADING TO AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

MEANWHILE OFF LAKE ERIE...A BROADER AREA OF MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH
MORE TRANSIENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS SKI COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE MUCH WEAKER INTENSITY OF THESE BANDS DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE...A MUCH LOWER CAP...AND A
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE COMPARED TO THEIR LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTERPART. THESE BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE ROUGHLY AS IS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY REMAINING FAIRLY MINOR IN
NATURE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEN AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND SEND
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BUFFALO AREA...WITH THESE SNOW
BANDS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE
BAND IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN FETCH...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND
SLOWLY IMPROVING LAKE EQLS. EXPECT THE CORE OF THE LAKE SNOWS TO
EVENTUALLY REACH A BUFFALO-BATAVIA AXIS BY LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE LINGERING/WOBBLING ABOUT THIS GENERAL
VICINITY TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALSO EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THE LAKE
SNOWS SPREADING OUT A BIT MORE AND WEAKENING A BIT OVERNIGHT.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT/STRONGEST LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS TODAY...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF A BETTER FETCH/MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND
HIGHER LAKE EQLS OF 9-10 KFT THEN LIKELY LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH MORE THEN FOLLOWING OVER
THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD. WHEN TAKING THESE IN CONSIDERATION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEW YEAR'S HOLIDAY TIMING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WHICH WILL ADD AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TO THE EQUATION...WE HAVE ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE
EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES FOR ERIE... GENESEE... AND WYOMING
COUNTIES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH SOME TRANSIENT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES AT TIMES...WITH THESE MORE COMMON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MORNING'S SHORTWAVE AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE COLD NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 20S TODAY...AND LOWS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 TONIGHT...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ANCHORED BY A POLAR LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. WITH THE JET
STREAM LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. THE CONSEQUENCE
OF THIS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD WILL BE THE
PERSISTENCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
THE FOCUS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH FROM
THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AXIS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BACK TO THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHTOWNS/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY AS
FLOW VEERS WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD REINVIGORATE THE LAKE BANDS AS THEY DROP SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR OSWEGO AS WELL AS CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES.

LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARDS AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. AS THESE WEAKENING BANDS ARE SHOVED ONTO THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE
COULD SEE LOW-END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE THE BANDS FALL APART COMPLETELY LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL GAVE WAY
TO SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS A WIDER AREA SOUTH OF THE LAKES FROM
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ONWARDS AS NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE REMNANTS
SOUTHWARDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID-WEEK MINIMUMS AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THAT SAID...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND AS SUCH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY WITH READINGS MODERATING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS AS THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN DIURNAL SWINGS CONSIDERABLY. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
READINGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE LOW TEENS OWING TO THE INCREASINGLY
NORTHERN COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF SOUTHWEST
CONUS PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BULK OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES STILL KEEPS MORE OF A BLOCKED PATTERN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
WEAK LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW GOING FORWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME WITH THE LATEST 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE NOW
DEPICTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING FOR PHASING OR PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS PV ANOMALY...AND A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. MUCH OF THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO STEM FROM A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OF
HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MATERIALIZE...WITH ORIGINS OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR BETTER PHASING DEPICTED BY 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THUS...REALLY CANNOT
MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO MID RANGE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL OF A LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOME TIME SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW/PHASING...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND RESOLVE ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR
WINTRY MIX (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT) WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE IF
IT DOES MATERIALIZE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND CERTAINLY A SYSTEM THAT
WILL NEED WATCHING GOING FORWARD THIS WEEK.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THERE DOES SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN A STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SNOWS TO DEVELOP. ONLY
QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY LIE ACROSS THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELTS SOUTH OF KBUF/KART THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
TO THE KBUF/KART AREAS AND POINTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...WHERE THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LIFR/IFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITHIN THE LAKE
SNOWS. OFF LAKE ERIE...IFR TO MVFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE IN LIGHTER
LAKE SNOWS THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATING TO
LIFR/IFR AS THE SNOW BANDS LIFT NORTH AND CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS TO HAVE THEIR GREATEST
IMPACT AT THE KBUF/KART TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 21Z TODAY ONWARD...WITH
GENERALLY LESSER IMPACTS AT KJHW THIS MORNING...AND AT KIAG/KROC
TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY VFR WITH JUST A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BACK A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ALSO INCREASING
TO GALE FORCE ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE GALES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ010>012-085-010930-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-010930-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-021-010930-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ADVISORY WORTHY ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-010930-
OSWEGO-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-010930-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-010930-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-010930-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-010930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
420 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR/WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
854 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ004>006-008-311500-
CAYUGA NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
854 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 845 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM BETWEEN FAIR HAVEN AND OSWEGO...TO
  NEAR PARISH. THIS SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH 10 AM...INTO
  OSWEGO...ALTMAR...REDFIELD AND CONSTABLEVILLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  CENTRAL SQUARE AND PORT ONTARIO...
  OSWEGO...
  ALTMAR...
  PULASKI...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...
  REDFIELD...
  CONSTABLEVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 36.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4354 7526 4342 7552 4348 7580 4333 7588
      4329 7586 4316 7589 4319 7608 4326 7620
      4322 7619 4328 7693 4331 7691 4335 7670
      4343 7663 4353 7642 4354 7624 4363 7621
      4365 7511

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ004>006-008-311600-
CAYUGA NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
950 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 938 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM OSWEGO AND MINETTO TO FLORENCE. THIS
  BAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH 11 AM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  OSGEGO...
  PALERMO...
  ALTMAR...
  PORT ONTARIO...
  PULASKI...
  CENTRAL SQUARE...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 36.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4333 7588 4332 7585
      4322 7587 4332 7678 4354 7641 4354 7624
      4364 7619 4361 7513

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ006>008-311700-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-
1057 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1042 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM OSWEGO TO PARISH TO REDFIELD. THIS
  SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO PULASKI...ADAMS...SANDY CREEK AND
  HIGHMARKET THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  STONY POINT...
  HENDERSON HARBOR...
  PORT ONTARIO...
  PULASKI...
  ADAMS AND ADAMS CENTER...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...
  REDFIELD...
  SANDY CREEK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 34 AND 43.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4339 7585 4343 7660
      4353 7642 4354 7624 4358 7621 4380 7624
      4391 7637 4388 7645 4390 7645 4392 7642
      4392 7637 4387 7630 4390 7620 4387 7621
      4391 7613 4386 7513 4362 7510

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ019-020-085-311800-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-
1136 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1124 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF
  ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR
  LESS. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM WESTFIELD TO NEAR
  DAYTON AND WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH 1 PM. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW
  SHOWERS WAS LOCATED NEAR DUNKIRK AND ANGOLA.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  FREDONIA AND SUNY FREDONIA...
  SILVER CREEK...
  LAKE ERIE BEACH...
  ANGOLA AND ANGOLA ON THE LAKE...
  LEON AND DERBY...
  GOWANDA AND COLLINS...
  OTTO AND NORTH BOSTON...
  EAST OTTO...
  DUNKIRK...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 58 AND 61.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 86 BETWEEN EXITS 4 AND 21.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4227 7976 4242 7946 4250 7935 4256 7916
      4269 7906 4270 7846 4214 7850 4211 7977

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1154 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ006>008-311800-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1145 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM PULASKI TO REDFIELD TO HIGHMARKET.
  THIS LAKE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH 1 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  ADAMS...
  ADAMS CENTER...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR...
  REDFIELD AND BARNES CORNERS...
  HIGHMARKET...
  SANDY CREEK...
  MANNSVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 33 AND 43.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4339 7585 4343 7660
      4353 7642 4354 7623 4368 7621 4380 7624
      4392 7637 4388 7642 4389 7645 4390 7645
      4392 7642 4392 7636 4387 7629 4390 7620
      4387 7621 4391 7613 4386 7513 4362 7510

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1251 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

NYZ006>008-311845-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-
1251 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 1238 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM ADAMS AND SANDY CREEK TO NORTH
  OSCEOLA. THIS SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH 2 PM...HOWEVER
  IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  ADAMS...
  ADAMS CENTER...
  SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR
  WATERTOWN...
  REDFIELD...
  BARNES CORNERS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 35 AND 47.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7552 4348 7580 4345 7582 4350 7647
      4354 7624 4358 7621 4380 7624 4391 7637
      4388 7645 4390 7645 4393 7637 4387 7630
      4390 7614 4398 7622 4396 7629 4404 7631
      4401 7619 4400 7516 4361 7510