Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
235 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES TODAY...AS A FRESH COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHERE THEY
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MORE TYPICAL LAKE SNOW BELTS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...RENEWED LAKE EFFECT WILL DUMP MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW ON AREAS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE AREA THAT
WAS JUST CRIPPLED WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...

A PATTERN VERY REMINISCENT OF LAST YEARS WINTER WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TODAY...AS RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR WIDE OPEN
FOR COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEREIN LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

A DEEP...CYCLONIC FLOW OF -14C H85 AIR WILL CIRCULATE ACROSS LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESTABLISH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WITH A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND A CAPPING INVERSION RISING FROM 10K FT TO AT LEAST
15K...THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER PROMINENT ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON AREAS THAT
RECEIVED UP TO FIVE FEET OF SNOW JUST 30 HOURS AGO.

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 250 TO 260 FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE BULK OF THE
ON STATION 6KM MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH JUST HAPPENED TO PERFORM
ADMIRABLY DURING THE JUST ENDED HISTORIC EVENT. OUR FORECAST WILL BE
BASED ON A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND AN AVERAGE OF THESE 6KM MODELS...
WITH A SUBTLE TENDENCY TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE BAND ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTH OF THE MODELS DUE TO THE EARLY SEASON LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECT.
THIS WILL PLACE THE BAND TODAY OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORE AND
STRETCH IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY...WITH
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND OVER THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS WHILE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO METROPOLITAN AREA.
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
BAND...WITH SOMEWHAT LACKING MOISTURE ABV 6K KEEPING RATES FROM
BEING ANY MORE IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING THIS TO THE MOST RECENT
EVENT...SNOWFALL RATES OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES PER HOUR WERE FOUND
WITH IT. IN ANY CASE...SUCH AS ORCHARD PARK...HAMBURG...EAST AURORA
AND MARILLA COULD EASILY PICK UP ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW TODAY. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH A MORE SHALLOW MIXED PHASE CLOUD IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO THIS
PAST EVENING (WHEN THUNDERSNOW WAS WIDESPREAD)...THE ODDS TODAY ARE
A BIT LONGER.

THE FLOW WILL VEER 300 DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL
DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY ON A 220-230 FLOW. AS THE FLOW
VEERS TO 240-250 DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL AND WATERTOWN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN
HOUR ARE EXPECTED AS A DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE IN
PLACE. DAYTIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH TWO FEET FOR SITES
SUCH AS WATERTOWN..FORT DRUM AND ADAMS CENTER.

LIKE LAKE ERIE...THE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL VEER TO AROUND 300
DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LAKE SNOWS SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL TO OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR SHOULD BE COMMON AS THE BAND MAKES THIS
TREK TO THE SOUTH.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...IT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME
FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS. MERCURY READINGS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WHERE LAKE
CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE COMMON NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT STORM ROUND 2 WILL STILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 15K FEET FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIES THE COLUMN AND
LOWERS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE BEST SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKE...AND MUCH LIGHTER
SNOW ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. THE LAKE SNOW SHOULD STEADILY
WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. FRIDAY EVENING
A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTH TOWARDS
BUFFALO AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT BY
THIS TIME INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE CRASHING...SO EXPECT A VERY
QUICK WEAKENING TREND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL PEAK AROUND 18K FEET FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY THEN DROPPING OFF EVEN
MORE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY MORNING THE BAND IS FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY AS A RAPID WIND SHIFT CROSSES THE LAKE IN THE WAKE
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO PUSH THE ENTIRE SINGLE BAND BODILY
ONSHORE AND BREAK IT APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS QUICKLY...WHICH
WILL THEN IMPACT AREAS FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WE HAD A DISCUSSION WITH WFO BGM ON POTENTIALLY ISSUING
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WITH SOME MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
VERY TRANSITORY BAND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET ON HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LAKE SNOW WILL PROBABLY ALSO SPREAD FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BRINGING SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LAKESHORE OF MONROE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER.

FRIDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK...WHICH WILL
CARRY ONE OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING...REACHING WATERTOWN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CRASHING AT THIS POINT UNDER STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...SO THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE WAY BACK NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.
WINDS WILL STILL BE VERY GUSTY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN AND NEAR THE LAKE SNOW BANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. THE HIGH SHOULD STILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...
WITH THE WARMEST DAY COMING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND PLENTY OF
WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A MAJOR MELTDOWN IN AREAS POUNDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN AND MAJOR SNOWMELT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...BOTH
FOR SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...
AND THE CREEKS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL REGION.

LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE IMPORTANT THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME PERIOD...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS.

THE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TODAY WILL
INCLUDE A BAND THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT KIAG...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR WEATHER FOR KROC AND AT TIMES FOR KBUF. ANOTHER
HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FOUND OVER WATERTOWN...
WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

TONIGHT...BOTH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KJHW...WHILE
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE FOUND AT KART...KBUF AND KROC.

THE CONCERN IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GUSTY WINDS REGIONWIDE. SFC WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 KNOTS...
MAINLY NEAR THE LAKES AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL IFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND
GROUND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE INFLUENCING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
         EST THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NYZ007-008-202045-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-202045-
OSWEGO-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-004-005-014-021-202045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-202045-
MONROE-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-202045-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-085-202045-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-202045-
LIVINGSTON-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-SLZ022-024-202045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-202045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-202045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
341 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1141 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-200745-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1141 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND IS SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY...IN A SIMILAR POSITION TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT.

CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SNOW BAND ARE VERY POOR.
* VISIBILITIES... 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* WINDS...UP TO 35 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW.
* THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES.
* SNOW RATES...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

AVOID TRAVELING IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT WILL BE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...AND IF YOU MUST TRAVEL MAKE SURE TO HAVE AN
EMERGENCY KIT IN CASE YOU BECOME STUCK.

THE SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS OF
BUFFALO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY MEANDER NORTH
TOWARD THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND THE BUFFALO AIRPORT AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES BY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY.

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NYZ001>003-010>012-085-200945-
ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-MONROE NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING NY-
354 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...

* AT 347 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  METRO BUFFALO AND NORTHTOWNS...
  FAR SOUTHEAST NIAGARA COUNTY...
  AKRON TO BATAVIA...
  NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTY...
  WESTERN MONROE COUNTY...

THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 47 AND 56.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4338 7796 4307 7765 4272 7891 4274 7893
      4279 7886 4293 7891 4296 7896

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

NYZ002-010>012-019-020-085-201145-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-ORLEANS NY-WYOMING
NY-
528 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...THE HARD HIT SOUTHTOWNS...THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE PARTS OF GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES....

* AT 525 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 3
  INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
  THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
  SHORELINE...ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS..AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  ANGOLA ON THE LAKE AND EVANS...
  DERBY AND NORTH COLLINS...
  NORTH BOSTON AND EDEN...
  HAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK...ELMA...AND EAST AURORA...
  LACKAWANNA...WEST SENECA...LANCASTER...ALDEN AND MARILLA...
  BATAVIA...DARIEN...AND CORFU...
  BENNINGTON AND ATTICA...
THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 48 AND 60.

* LIGHTNING AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR EVEN IMPOSSIBLE
DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND
DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADWAYS. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA
BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED
CELL PHONE.

LAT...LON 4229 7975 4242 7946 4250 7936 4256 7916
      4270 7905 4271 7899 4278 7886 4285 7887
      4292 7867 4315 7817 4274 7797 4226 7976

ZAFF