Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ONE TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE OTHER MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY INDUCING A TEMPORARY AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR NOW. EXPECT AS THE DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL RESERVE THE LIKELY POPS TO
THE EAST WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...WHILE LEAVING JUST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY BE EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS BEHIND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY'S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 05Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING
THE KJHW TERMINAL. THIS REGION IS BEING IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY BRING A BRIEF
UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-272000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-272000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-272000-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NYZ003-011-270845-
GENESEE NY-MONROE NY-
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA...

* AT 350 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
  VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCERPORT...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  HILTON...
  GATES-NORTH GATES AND GATES...
  ROCHESTER...
  IRONDEQUOIT AND BRIGHTON...
  EAST ROCHESTER...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 4329 7766 4328 7762 4324 7755 4324 7753
      4326 7750 4326 7748 4310 7744 4310 7791
      4326 7798 4334 7772

HITCHCOCK