Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Buffalo, NY

692 
WHUS71 KBUF 280036
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LEZ040-041-280845-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140728T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-280845-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140728T1800Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-280845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0600Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-280845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140728T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-280845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140728T1800Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
836 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

141 
WHUS71 KBUF 280834
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOZ045-281645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-281645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140728T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-281645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.140728T0900Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-281645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

304 
WHUS71 KBUF 281615
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOZ042>044-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140728T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1215 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

451 
WHUS71 KBUF 281903
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LEZ020-LOZ030-282015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140728T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 



$$

LOZ042>044-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

225 
WHUS71 KBUF 282332
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOZ042>044-290300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
732 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-290300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
732 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-290300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
732 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

138 
WHUS71 KBUF 290243
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-290345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-140729T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE...WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR SITS BACK JUST TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD
END SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A
PRETTY NICE DAY FROM MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE
INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR
MODEL...AMONG OTHER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS RAINFALL INTO FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK JUST BEFORE SUNSET...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THIS. SPC DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE
REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST SHEAR IS
STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE MARGINAL
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING
TWO PLUS INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR CIGS...BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING
EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD
POSSIBLY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NYZ001>004-010-011-280915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005>008-280915-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-280915-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-280915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK