Alert archive / New York / Freezing Rain Advisories in 2014

Freezing Rain Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 22, 201411 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this freezing rain advisory at Nov 22, 2014, 3:42 AM EST for 11 counties in New York. It took effect at Nov 22, 2014, 9:00 AM EST. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 22, 2014, 3:42 AM EST (08:42 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 22, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 22, 2014, 10:20 PM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-11-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-11-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 129 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1010 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
129 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

609 
WWUS41 KBUF 220842
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ019>021-221645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1400Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE
  IN THE VALLEYS.

* TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
  INCH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-221645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS
  AFTERNOON AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TONIGHT...LEADING TO
  STORM TOTALS OF UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COATING OF
  ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

WOOD
8 follow-up statements
280 
WWUS41 KBUF 221442
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
942 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ019>021-221900-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
942 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL 
  BE IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON 
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-222245-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
942 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
  THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
350 
WWUS41 KBUF 221510
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-221700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...ERIE...GENESEE AND WYOMING
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
  THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING
  OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY
  CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-221900-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL 
  BE IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
  TODAY.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON 
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-222315-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
  THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY
  SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
697 
WWUS41 KBUF 221719
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-221830-
/O.EXP.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUE TO RISE. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED.

$$

NYZ019>021-221900-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL 
  BE IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO A TENTH AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-230130-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN 
  INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A 
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
805 
WWUS41 KBUF 221750
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ006-007-222200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141122T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-221900-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL 
  BE IN THE VALLEYS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON 
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-230200-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.141122T1900Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN 
  INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
634 
WWUS41 KBUF 221913
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ019>021-222015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T1900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
213 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN.

$$

NYZ008-230315-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
213 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN 
  INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A 
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006-007-222200-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
213 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON 
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
715 
WWUS41 KBUF 222045
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ008-230445-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
345 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN 
  INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A 
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006-007-222200-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141122T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
345 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MOSTLY LIKELY ON
  THE TUG HILL.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE A COATING OF ICE ON 
  UNTREATED SURFACES...RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA
710 
WWUS41 KBUF 222353
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ008-230500-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
653 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. ICE 
  ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN A 
  COATING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...MAKING THEM EXTREMELY 
  SLIPPERY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$
471 
WWUS41 KBUF 230320
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

NYZ008-230430-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-141123T0500Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1020 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
LEWIS COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this freezing rain advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freezing rain advisory went out at Nov 21, 11:34 PM EST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 11:34 PM EST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1134 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND COMPLETELY GONE NOW
WITH ANY FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STRETCHING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO CANADA...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND HAS BROADENED INTO A WEAK AREA OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW AS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS LOST. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FRESH DUSTING.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS LEWIS COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SHORT
WINDOW OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES...COLDER INLAND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. OTHERWISE A PLUME OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND LEAVING
VFR BEHIND.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS
COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 21, 10:44 PM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NYZ001>005-013-014-230345-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-019-085-230345-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-230345-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-230345-
ALLEGANY-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY
BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE COLDER
VALLEYS RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-230345-
CATTARAUGUS-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY
BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE COLDER
VALLEYS RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-230345-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1044 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE RAIN MAY
BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE COLDER
LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
ON UNTREATED ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 22, 3:42 PM ESTGale WatchBUF23 hr
Nov 22, 3:53 PM ESTHigh Wind WatchBUFChautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans and 1 more23 hr
Nov 22, 4:54 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming71 hr

Nearby

Freezing Rain Advisories in New York, 2014Every freezing rain advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.