Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THERE APPEARS TO BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH WE HAVE
BEEN DEALING WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST LAST
NIGHT. BUT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST...WHILE NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE
BOUNDARIES ARE AROUND. THE LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SURFACE
BASED CAPES INCREASING INTO THE 3000-3500 RANGE ACROSS WEST
ALABAMA WEST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AN. ADDITIONALLY...BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE THE LARGEST NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
ROTATING EASTWARD NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED SHORTLY AND SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A POTENTIAL EAST
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION IF SOME ORGANIZATION CAN MAKE IT INTO
ALABAMA. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED BACK INTO
ARKANSAS...WHICH IMPACT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

THEREFORE...ADDED SEVERAL COUNTIES INTO A LOWER CONFIDENCE SEVERE
FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA GENERALLY IS WEST
OF A LINE FROM MONTGOMERY TO ONEONTA. THE STORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WHERE STORMS NORTH
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED. THE MAIN
THREATS REMAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DECREASES EASTWARD AND THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LESS THAT ANYTHING WILL BE SUSTAINED
THERE...BUT CERTAINLY A STRONG STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TO START...THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS NOW PRIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA. MEANWHILE...AND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY PUSH TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF TERMINALS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 01Z AND
THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO
ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
65 CORRIDOR. AS THE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 06Z. THIS WILL LEAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TOI...WHERE THE LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ANY LOCATION THAT
EXPERIENCES HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
TOMORROW MORNING.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  89  68  89  69 /  40  50  30  30  30
ANNISTON    71  88  69  88  70 /  40  50  20  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  71  89  72 /  40  50  20  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  72  91  72  90  72 /  40  50  20  30  30
CALERA      72  90  71  89  71 /  40  50  20  30  20
AUBURN      71  87  70  88  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  73  91  72  92  71 /  30  50  20  30  20
TROY        72  92  71  91  70 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
802 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-090115-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
802 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. A FEW STRONG STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 2 AND 8
PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ABERNANT           33.32N 87.17W
06/06/2014                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN ON ROCKHOUSE ROAD.

&&

JTALLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ011-014-080015-
MARION AL-WINSTON AL-
627 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WINSTON AND NORTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 624 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HACKLEBURG...OR 9 MILES WEST OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HALEYVILLE...
  NEEDMORE...
  ASHRIDGE...
  WINSTON FREE STATE BARN...
  BEAR CREEK...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8766 3431 8756 3429 8736 3405 8745
      3423 8789 3432 8785 3432 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 287DEG 15KT 3426 8776

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ014-080100-
WINSTON AL-
716 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ASHRIDGE...
  WINSTON FREE STATE BARN...
  DOUBLE SPRINGS...
  HOUSTON RECREATIONAL AREA...
  CORINTH REC AREA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8728 3400 8735 3399 8738 3410 8764
      3424 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 284DEG 9KT 3416 8759

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
826 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLACK POND              34.07N 87.37W
06/07/2014                   WINSTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE BLACK POND COMMUNITY ALONG HIGHWAY 195.

&&

JTALLEY