Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Birmingham, AL

227 
WWUS54 KBMX 282057
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ALC093-282130-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-140428T2130Z/
MARION AL-
357 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TREMONT...OR 9 MILES EAST OF FULTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HACKLEBURG...SHOTTSVILLE AND PIGEYE.

THIS INCLUDES...
US 78 EXIT NUMBER 3...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3431 8773 3428 8772 3413 8820 3428 8819
      3432 8818 3433 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 241DEG 39KT 3430 8820

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
319 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS HAPPENING IN THE WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
CLOUD COVER IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
THESE CONDITIONS HAVE YIELDED EXTREME SBCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 2000
TO 3000 J/KG. THE 18Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE CAP SHOULD
BE GONE BY NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 80S. THE 0-1 KM
SRH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAREFULLY TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA. MOST
OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST THAT CAUSES THE WIND FIELDS TO
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IF THIS
WERE TO HAPPEN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES WOULD BUMP UP ANYWHERE FROM
250-400 M2/S2. EXPECT THE CAPE WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR IN
LIMITING THE THREAT. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS A STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE SPC
HAS UPGRADED THE SWODY1 TO A HIGH RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
STORMS OR A TORNADO FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS A
VERY SERIOUS THREAT AND SHOULD BE TAKEN AS SO. PLEASE BE SURE THAT
YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS. DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PLEASE HAVE ALERT SYSTEM THAT CAN WAKE YOU UP DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT LIKE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

THE THREAT TOMORROW LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
PUSHED IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW. IF
THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW. SBCAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN PUSH UP TO 2000-3000
J/KG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET DUE TO THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
BECAUSE THE THREATS ARE CONDITIONAL ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...THESE TWO THREATS SHOULD BE TAKEN VERY
SERIOUSLY...WE HAVE NOT HAD AN EVENT LIKE THIS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
IN SOMETIME.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND THE 3 KFT MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AND BECOME VFR
EVERYWHERE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATER TONIGHT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHER
UPDATES WILL REFINE THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  81  62  75  50 / 100  90  80  30  10
ANNISTON    68  80  64  75  51 / 100  90  80  40  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  81  60  75  50 / 100  90  80  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  82  59  75  49 / 100  90  60  20  10
CALERA      68  82  62  75  51 / 100  90  80  30  10
AUBURN      69  80  67  75  54 /  80 100  80  60  20
MONTGOMERY  71  82  68  79  55 /  90 100  80  60  20
TROY        71  80  69  78  55 /  60  90  80  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-291100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1025 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES...WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE ALL LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO ANNISTON. HOWEVER...ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND OF
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA STARTING AROUND 3 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.