River Flood Warning 41, NWS Birmingham, AL

782 
WGUS84 KBMX 291118
FLSBMX
CHGABULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE CAHABA RIVER...

.RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS GREAT AS EARLIER FORECAST OVER THE CAHABA
RIVER BASIN...AND THE FLOOD WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 
HOWEVER...SOME MINOR OVERFLOW IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
REACHES OF THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-291148-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140501T1824Z/
/CHGA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
618 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* AT 5:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.8 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS IN THE CAHABA HEIGHTS 
  AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC007-047-105-291148-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-140502T1019Z/
/CKLA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
618 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* AT 5 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 18.4 FEET 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 23 FEET...PASTURE LANDS BEGIN TO FLOOD IN THE 
  CENTREVILLE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-291148-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140429T1118Z/
/SUTA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
618 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR SUTTLE.
* AT 6 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 22.8 FEET 
  FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 32 FEET...FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS OCCURS IN THE 
  SUTTLE AREA.  

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

ALC047-105-291148-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140429T1118Z/
/MNJA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
618 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT MARION JUNCTION.
* AT 5 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 26.6 FEET 
  FRIDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 15 FEET...FLOODING AROUND OAKMULGEE CREEK BEGINS AND 
  CATTLE NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  OVERFLOW OF PASTURE 
  LANDS INCREASES AT STAGES ABOVE 20 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE FROM THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WINDS ARE FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...IE AT
ASN...GAD. ANB IS STILL VARIABLE BUT SUSPECT IT WON'T BE LONG
BEFORE THEY SHIFT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THEIR NORTH AND WEST
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THIS MORNING...THE
SURFACE LOW IS CIRCLING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL
MAKE ONLY LITTLE/VERY SLOW PROGRESS INTO ONLY MISSOURI BY THIS
TIME ON TUESDAY...WEAKENING MAYBE A LITTLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INFLUX INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WARM GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...A HUGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ROTATE AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH ROUND ONE OF THE
STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVERALL AS THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW FOR ROUND ONE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH FAIRLY DECENT HEATING POSSIBLE WITH
OUR GENEROUS SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
80S FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH
SOME SPOTS COMING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD HELP US TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT BIG THUNDERSTORM SHOW EXPECTED TO IGNITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. NOT TO SAY WE WILL NOT
HAVE ANY ACTIVITY UNTIL THEN...BUT OUR MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER...AS A FAVORABLE UPPER 250 MB JET WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. 60 PLUS KNOTS BY 00Z
AND APPROACHING 90 PLUS KNOTS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A 50
KNOT 850 MB JET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH
THE AREA HEATING UP TODAY...CAPE WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH
ANYWHERE FROM 1000-3000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE
IN AMPLE SUPPLY AS WELL. 0-1 KM BY THIS AFTERNOON IS 30+...0-6
MORE THAN ENOUGH AS YOU WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN LATE APRIL. EVEN
0-8 KM IS GREATER THAN 60+ ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. 0-1 KM
HELICITY IS 250+. SO CONTINUING WITH ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE AND WITH AS MUCH DEEP SHEAR AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
LONG LIVED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SO OK...THE WAVE TONIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE SHOULD HAVE A GAP IN
THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS START UP AGAIN AS THE FRONT
GETS CLOSER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO ALABAMA
AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS
WILL WE HAVE ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE WEST BEHIND THE EXITING BAND
IN THE EAST BEFORE THE NEXT BAND MOVES IN TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST LOW LEVEL
JET RACES OFF TUESDAY MORNING...A SECOND ONE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET IS STILL PRESENT ON
TUESDAY...THE BETTER SPEED MAX SHIFTS NORTHWARD. SO THE POTENTIAL
IS STILL THERE FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EARLY BUT THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AFFECTS FROM TONIGHT'S ROUND. IF
ANYTHING...WE ARE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE
AREA.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF AS IT
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PROGRESS
THROUGH. SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY ON IN THE DAY. WE COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR MID
WEEK AS WELL.

POST FRONT LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE MAIN RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW. BY
THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE SHOULD SETTLE
IN OVER THE GULF WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN THE EXTENDED.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TCL AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS BHM IN THE NEXT
HOUR. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
TO ALL VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SETTLE NEAR THE I-20/59 CORRIDOR. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL IS SLIDES THROUGH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MGM AND TOI UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING OR ROUGHLY AROUND
04Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-291100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
542 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES...WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
LAST THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...VERY
LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING ALL LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO ANNISTON.
HOWEVER...ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING AROUND 3 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.