Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE WEST IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NO TRIGGER THE REST OF THE MORNING. IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT. NE A FEW SHOWERS. SO QUIET
MIDDAY WHILE WE WAIT FOR DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTN. TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THEN GET WORSE
IN THE EAST WHERE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE IS.

400 AM UPDATE...
OUR AREA IS IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF RAIN AT THE MOMENT, WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG DUE TO THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SCT. SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE
THROUGH MID MORNING, MAIN FOCUS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT NOW JUST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WHILE THIS
FRONT IS HARD TO ANALYZE JUST BASED ON SURFACE OBS, IT IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER/WESTERN NY BASED ON
UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING FROM NORTHEST TO SOUTHEAST,
OR GENERALLY OVER THE SAME AREA. SO FAR WE HAVE BEEN LUCKY WITH ONLY A
NARROW STRIPE OF STORM TOTALS APPROACHING AN INCH AND MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT. TRAINING POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN WESTERN
NY/NORTHERN PA, ALONG WITH RADAR TENDENCIES THUS FAR. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF ONE SPECIFIC AREA CAN
BE NARROWED DOWN BUT MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW TO DO ANYTHING.

PART OF OUR AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
ROUGHLY FROM KBGM SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE IN THIS AREA THAT WE
STAND THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR, JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION.  MODEL CAPES VARY GREATLY, WITH THE NAM
SHOWING CLOSE TO 1400 J/KG AT KAVP WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 400.
BASED ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT WHERE WE HAD SOME PRETTY
HEALTHY CORES UP TO 20KT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY, THE THREAT FOR
HAIL/BRIEF WIND ISSUES SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE AREAS JUST
HIGHLIGHTED.

GRADUALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL LIFT NORTH, WHILE OCCLUDING, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR T-STORM FOR ANYBODY BUT THE SLIGHT
MOVEMENT EAST, WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I-81. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DIMINISHING AFTER 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FAR EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FRIDAY, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF THE COAST. STILL, WITH
MOISTURE AROUND SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE...

A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THE START OF THE
LONG TERM STILL IN NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UL TROF. DRYING
WITH WAA ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. BUILDING UL HEIGHTS. MONDAY MAY REMAIN DRY
STILL BUT FRONTS APPROACH AND LINGER INTO WED. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
MON NGT TO AT LEAST WED. UL WEAK RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD AND A TROF DEVELOPS BACK OVER SE CANADA.

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NEAR NORMAL TO START BECOMING WARMER THAN
NORMAL MONDAY TO WED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED IN AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER ALL TAF SITES IN NE
PA AND C NY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT TSRA FORMING AND AT TIMES CUD RESTRICT
VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR FOR 30 TO 60 MINUTES AT BEST AT KAVP...KBGM...AND
KITH. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHUD A STORM
DIRECTLY HIT A TAF SITE. ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES BY THIS EVE. AFTER FROPA...I SEE AN MVFR CIG LAYER
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACRS ALL TAF SITES AND REMAIN IN TACT BTWN 4Z
AND 12-14Z...THEN VFR IN A SC/CU LAYER.

WINDS WILL BE W TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHWRS.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...VFR.

TUE...MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NYZ015>018-022>025-231700-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-
TOMPKINS-
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREAS. IN ADDITION, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-
231700-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREAS. IN ADDITION, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LIGHTNING, AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

PAZ043-047-221900-
LUZERNE PA-WYOMING PA-
212 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND
LUZERNE COUNTIES...

* AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST
  OF SWEET VALLEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MUHLENBERG AND HUNTINGTON MILLS AT 220 PM EDT...
  KOONSVILLE AT 225 PM EDT...
  LEE AND SHICKSHINNY AT 230 PM EDT...
  POND HILL AND ALDEN AT 235 PM EDT...
  SLOCUM AND NUANGOLA AT 240 PM EDT...
  DORRANCE AND ALBERT AT 245 PM EDT...
  SPRINGTOWN AND SYBERTSVILLE AT 250 PM EDT...
  DRUMS AND NESCOPECK STATE PARK AT 255 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4121 7633 4129 7632 4135 7630 4140 7624
      4107 7576 4104 7576 4103 7573 4100 7574
      4091 7600

TAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             2 WNW FOSTER            42.14N  76.19W
05/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       TIOGA              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             WELTONVILLE             42.20N  76.25W
05/22/2014  M0.88 INCH       TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG