Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF. SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACRS C
NY AND NE PA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. THIS CAPE IS IN COMBINATION WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD ACRS PA AND
NY. 7.4 MICRON SOUNDER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAYER OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN CONCERT
WITH SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION. THIS WAS LEADING TO CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG. IN ADDTN....THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTG A MID-LEVEL JET WHICH
WAS ENHANCING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 50 KNOTS.
SINCE MOST OF THE SHEAR IS IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER...WE ARE SEEING
SUPERCELLUAR TYPE STORMS. FORTUNATELY THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WAS WEAK
ENUF AND WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY MESOCYCLONES DESCEND DOWN TO THE
LOWEST LAYERS. THESE SUPERCELLS ARE PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
WE HAVE A MULTITUDE OF HAIL REPORTS WITH GOLF BALL SIZED THE
LARGEST SO FAR WITH NO WIND DAMAGE REPORTED AS OF YET. SVR THREAT
WILL END BY EVENING AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD AND PUSHES FRONT
THRU.

THE ABV MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH THE CD FRNT THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE STORMS TO THE EAST. AFTER
FROPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ADVECT A LAYER OF SC SOUTHEAST
INTO THE HILLS OF C NY AND NRN PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLGHT CHC-CHC CAT
OVERNIGHT. I WILL TWEAK AS LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDC COMES IN
AND ALSO AFTER COLLBORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH AND COVER NY
AND PA FOR FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING
SFC DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT SCT SHRA. THERE CUD EVEN BE SOME ISLD
TSRA IN A FEW CELLS ESPCLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ENHANCED. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAY/S HEATING AND
MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND
AFFECT NY/PA IN CONCERT WITH THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY SUGGESTING
CONTINUED CHC FOR SHRA. AGAIN THERE CUD ALSO BE AN ISLD
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NRN AND ERN ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SUBSDC
SHUD KEEP THE DAY MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDC AS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS. WILL COLLABORATE WITH NEIGBORING OFFICES AND SHIP
GRIDS SOON.

BASIC PATTERN IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE PASSING E THRU NY AND
PA FOR TUESDAY AS PER EURO AND GFS SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED IN AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER ALL TAF SITES IN NE
PA AND C NY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT TSRA FORMING AND AT TIMES CUD RESTRICT
VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR FOR 30 TO 60 MINUTES AT BEST AT KAVP...KBGM...AND
KITH. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHUD A STORM
DIRECTLY HIT A TAF SITE. ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES BY THIS EVE. AFTER FROPA...I SEE AN MVFR CIG LAYER
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACRS ALL TAF SITES AND REMAIN IN TACT BTWN 4Z
AND 12-14Z...THEN VFR IN A SC/CU LAYER.

WINDS WILL BE W TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHWRS.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...VFR.

TUE...MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NYZ015>018-022>025-231700-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-
TOMPKINS-
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREAS. IN ADDITION, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-
231700-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1256 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREAS. IN ADDITION, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LIGHTNING, AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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