Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10 PM...02Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY BUF AND CTP. NO
REPORTS YET. BROKEN LINE ON NW EDGE OF CWA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF CWA AROUND 00Z AND OUT NEAR 2Z. PRODUCTS UPDATED AND
DAMAGING WINDS ADDED TO GRIDS.

3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWOOD               42.13N  77.65W
09/02/2014                   STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

DJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
614 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMMONDSPORT            42.41N  77.22W
09/02/2014                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES ACROSS ROAD

&&

DJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADDISON                 42.11N  77.23W
09/02/2014                   STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

DJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NYZ009-017-018-036-037-044-045-022345-
CAYUGA NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MADISON...NORTHERN
CHENANGO...NORTHERN CORTLAND...ONONDAGA...SOUTHEASTERN CAYUGA AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES...

* AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM ONONDAGA TO SEMPRONIUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
  MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LYNDON AND DE WITT AT 650 PM EDT...
  FAYETTEVILLE AND MINOA AT 655 PM EDT...
  GREEN LAKES STATE PARK AND KIRKVILLE AT 700 PM EDT...
  WATERVALE AND ORAN AT 705 PM EDT...
  CHITTENANGO AND SULLIVAN AT 710 PM EDT...
  OLD ERIE CANAL STATE HISTORIC PARK AND CHITTENANGO FALLS STATE PARK
  AT 715 PM EDT...
  SOUTH BAY AND CAZENOVIA AT 720 PM EDT...
  LENOX AND CANASTOTA AT 725 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4305 7521 4291 7520 4288 7522 4287 7525
      4284 7524 4265 7538 4264 7665 4318 7642
      4319 7596 4316 7592 4316 7589 4319 7588
      4321 7509

TAC

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