Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY, ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS ONLY BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

OVER WRN NY ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROF
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS INSTABILITY DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUDS BUT SPC
MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG OVER NE PA, SO
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EAST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS AIRMASS IS
VERY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.

MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN'T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
0Z. WHILE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE, MOST LIKELY TERMINALS
WILL BE FROM NEAR KELM THROUGH KBGM/KITH AND KAVP. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE WITH MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS.
ENHANCED THE WIND WORDING HERE TO SHOW THAT ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THUR/FRI...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-142030-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-
TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ022-024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-142030-
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

PAZ038-039-043-140000-
BRADFORD PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN BRADFORD...
SUSQUEHANNA AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

* AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM ROME TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OVERTON...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ORWELL AND WEST WARREN AT 710 PM EDT...
  HERRICKVILLE AND HERRICK AT 715 PM EDT...
  WARREN CENTER AND TERRYTOWN AT 720 PM EDT...
  MIDDLETOWN CENTER AND WYALUSING AT 725 PM EDT...
  FRIENDSVILLE AND SUGAR RUN AT 730 PM EDT...
  STOWELL AND LACEYVILLE AT 735 PM EDT...
  JENNINGSVILLE AT 740 PM EDT...
  LOVELTON AND ELK LAKE AT 745 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4154 7623 4158 7670 4197 7637 4185 7551
      4164 7571 4163 7574 4140 7593 4140 7628

/TAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRKWOOD                42.03N  75.78W
07/13/2014                   BROOME             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN CLOSING PART OF OSTRUM ROAD

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSON CITY            42.12N  75.96W
07/13/2014                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            PORTION OF ROOF POSSIBLY TORN OFF STORE AT OAKDALE
            MALL. WATER COMING IN STORE.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOWANDA                 41.77N  76.45W
07/13/2014                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN BRADFORD COUNTY.

&&

MSE