Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
330 PM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE
HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM 40-50 KNOTS. SO FAR NONE OF THE STORMS HAS MANAGED TO
BECOME SEVERE. IT APPEARS THEY ARE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED AND MAY
JUST STAY AT BORDERLINE SEVERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH FOR OUR
AREA HAS DECREASED TO 20 PERCENT FROM 40. WHICH AGREE WITH AS
STORMS JUST DO NOT LOOK VERY WELL BALANCED. STILL CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT NONE WILL BECOME SEVERE THOUGH. WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

1245 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DIG SOUTH TODAY INTO THE MID-WEST THEN START TO SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS OUR
CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT IS HARD TO DISCERN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NY AND BELIEVE IT IS SLIGHTLY HEIGHTENED BY
THIS BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY GOING UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SO FAR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST SHOWERS BUT THERE
ARE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A DENSE CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED BY THE COMBINATION OF SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND MID LVL MOISTURE. EXPECT CU FIELD TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR TODAY'S CONVECTION. WE DO HAVE SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION... MUCAPE BEING 500 TO 1000 J/KG...
BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAD YESTERDAY. WE DO STILL HOWEVER
HAVE STRONG SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE REGION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AT
40 KNOTS OR ABOVE. ONE FACTOR GOING IN OUR FAVOR TODAY IS THAT WE
DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THIS BEING SAID WE THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BECOME SHEARED OUT. BUT... WE CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME STRONG
OR SEVERE. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BUF AND ALY SHOWS DRY AIR NEAR THE
SFC... WHICH HINTS THE POTENTIAL THAT IF A STORM DEVELOPS IT MAY HAVE
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE IN
THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL SWING THOUGH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS FROPA WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH. ALSO THESE STORMS ARE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LOSE ITS STEAM AFTER THE SUNSETS.

EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S TO 80S.
TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE IT TILL LATE THIS EVENING.

STORM SURVEYS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN STORMS ARE FULLY
INVESTIGATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
150 PM EDT UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. AN
UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD... HOWEVER ARE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THINK THE SFC HIGH WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RISING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 80S BY SAT. AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S EACH MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...LTL CHG TO THE XNTDD AS A BROAD TROF SLOWLY
DVLPS THRU THE PD...GRADUALLY INCRSG THE CHANCE FOR CONV. DAYTIME
HI/S WILL AVG ABV NRML WITH WEAK WAA CONTG INTO TUE. LOWS NEAR
NRML...ESP EARLY. PRVS DISC BLO.

3 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTNDD WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN DRG THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLGT CHC THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS
AS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR WEST SUN MRNG. AS FNT APPRCHS DRG
THE DAY ON SUNDAY POPS WL INCRS TO HICHC AND WITH MULTIPLE WVS
POSSIBLY RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THE CHC FOR
THUNDER CONTS UNTIL FROPA OCCURS BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WL MODERATE TO
ABV NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BFR DROPPING OFF TO NR NORMAL FOLLOWING
FROPA. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH JUST A FEW TWEEKS
FOR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE COVERED FOR A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO -SHRA
IN THE TAFS BUT RADAR WILL BE MONITORED FOR QUICK UPDATES IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT ELM BY DAYBREAK. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ON THURSDAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE WSW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM/PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-102015-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-BRADFORD-
413 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-102015-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
413 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NYZ062-PAZ048-092030-
PIKE PA-SULLIVAN NY-
345 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

* AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARTWOOD...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIGHVIEW
  ALSO MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTICELLO AT 350 PM EDT...
  ROCK HILL AND BASHA KILL AT 355 PM EDT...
  MT PROSPER AND HAVEN AT 400 PM EDT...
  WURTSBORO AND HIGHVIEW AT 405 PM EDT...
  PHILLIPSPORT AT 410 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4158 7437 4156 7443 4150 7448 4149 7475
      4143 7475 4142 7480 4159 7488 4159 7487
      4172 7451 4164 7439 4159 7436

PVN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NYZ045-056-057-PAZ039-040-092130-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
425 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHENANGO...NORTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA...
SOUTHEASTERN BROOME AND WEST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES...

* AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHERMAN AT 435 PM EDT...
  DEPOSIT AND SANFORD AT 440 PM EDT...
  STILESVILLE AT 445 PM EDT...
  OQUAGA CREEK STATE PARK AT 450 PM EDT...
  CANNONSVILLE AT 455 PM EDT...
  MASONVILLE AT 500 PM EDT...
  TROUT CREEK AND ROCK RIFT AT 505 PM EDT...
  LOOMIS AND BEERSTON AT 510 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4233 7529 4202 7495 4190 7561 4205 7573

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

PAZ038-039-043-044-047-092130-
BRADFORD PA-LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
432 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LUZERNE...
SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD...SOUTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA...WEST CENTRAL
LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

* AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OVERTON...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWEET VALLEY AT 440 PM EDT...
  WILMOT AT 445 PM EDT...
  HOLLENBACK AND TERRYTOWN AT 450 PM EDT...
  LOVELTON AND KASSON BROOK AT 455 PM EDT...
  FORKSTON AND JENNINGSVILLE AT 500 PM EDT...
  MEHOOPANY AND EVANS FALLS AT 505 PM EDT...
  MEHOOPANY AND MESHOPPEN AT 510 PM EDT...
  RUSSELL HILL AND VOSBURG AT 515 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4134 7631 4153 7623 4156 7653 4157 7653
      4186 7597 4144 7567 4128 7602 4127 7632

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
504 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             MILFORD                 42.59N  74.95W
07/09/2014  M0.88 INCH       OTSEGO             NY   PUBLIC

&&

PN