Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
436 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALREADY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES
EXCLUDING FAR SOUTH AND SW AREAS.

MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KTS DUE TO A
WEAK BUT NICELY VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. INITIAL CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN ERN CO AND SWRN KS TO BEGIN TO INTERACT AND GROW UPSCALE TO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING, STRONG WIND PRODUCING MCS AIDED BY EXPECTED
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. 850-300 MEAN WINDS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST RAPID FORWARD SPEED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. LIFTING ON
THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT IN OUR AREA TO KEEP
THE SYSTEM PROPAGATING SE. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED MCS...
OUTFLOW INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST TOWARD AMARILLO LATE
THIS EVENING/VERY EARLY MON MORNING. OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
AND SVR WX WILL BE IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEAVY RAIN AS A CERTAINTY WITH STORMS BUT HAVE
REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO EXPECTED RAPID
FORWARD MOTION OF THE MAIN MCS.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...
BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT SURGES TONIGHT
AND WHAT KIND OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WE GET ALONG IT LATE TONIGHT
AND/OR TOMORROW. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME NWD MIXING OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MON EVENING SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN
THE SW TX PANHANDLE FOR MON NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE HIGH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS MED RANGE
MODELS VARY WILDLY ON THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN 5-10 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  83  64  83  64 /  40  20  40  20  30
BEAVER OK                  66  87  65  87  65 /  90  20  30  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              62  82  61  85  62 /  50  20  40  20  30
BORGER TX                  67  86  67  86  66 /  60  20  40  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              65  86  65  88  66 /  30  20  40  20  30
CANYON TX                  63  84  64  84  64 /  40  30  40  20  20
CLARENDON TX               66  85  66  84  66 /  50  30  40  20  30
DALHART TX                 61  83  61  85  63 /  40  20  40  20  30
GUYMON OK                  65  85  65  86  64 /  70  20  30  20  40
HEREFORD TX                63  84  63  84  63 /  30  30  40  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                66  85  65  86  66 /  80  20  30  20  40
PAMPA TX                   64  83  64  83  65 /  70  20  40  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                66  86  66  85  66 /  70  30  30  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              68  88  68  86  68 /  60  30  30  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
LIMITED ACTIVATION AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

OKZ003-222100-
BEAVER OK-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOWLES...OR 17 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BEAVER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KNOWLES...            GATE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3700 9999 3684 10000 3684 10041 3701 10042
      3701 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 251DEG 15KT 3697 10027

JACKSON