Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE
REGION. SCTD TSTMS...SOME STRONG AND SEVERE...WERE DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTN FM THE NRN VA PIEDMONT CNTIES NNE THRU MD AND INTO
PA. THESE STORMS WERE FORMING IN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS WILL PUSH ESE AND OFF THE CST LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENG...WITH THE STRONGEST AND POSSIBLY SVR STORMS
MOVNG THRU THE NRN VA PIEDMONT ESE ACRS THE VA NRN NECK AND INTO
THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFF THE CST BY 11 PM
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THAT COLD FRONT WILL SINK FARTHER S OF THE AREA DURING FRI...WITH
DRIER NW OR N FLO CONTINUING TO FILTER IN...AS HI PRES BLDS FM
THE UPR MIDWEST SE INTO THE OH VLY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. LATER FRI THRU SAT...A
WEAK TROF SFC-ALOFT WILL DROP THRU THE NRN MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ENE CNTIES WITH SOME MORE CLOUDINESS...AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISLTD SHOWER OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. OTHRWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FRI NGT THRU SAT. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60. HIGHS ON SAT RANGING THRU THE 70S.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...SFC HI PRES WILL SLIDE FM THE OH VLY SE TO
RIGHT OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
SAT NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO RATHER WEAK
SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS. THE BEST TIME-FRAME FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS (SLIGHT
CHC/LOW-END CHC AT THIS TIME) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COMBINE WITH LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING E OF THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SRN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS S THROUGH THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 18Z...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL WELL OFF TO THE
N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANTICIPATING THAT SOME OF THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND/OR DEVELOP OVER VA/MD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE "TSRA" IN AT ANY TAF SITE
BUT DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA AT KRIC/SBY FOR NOW. COULD ALSO
SEE THEM AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THE OTHER SITES ALTHOUGH TIMING EVEN
MORE UNCERTAIN. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MORE LIKELY DUE TO VSBYS THAN CIGS. ALSO...IF ANY
SITE DOES RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...A FEW HRS WORTH OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z-03/06Z BEFORE A STRONGER
PUSH OF DRIER N/NW FLOW MOVES IN. AFTER 03/06Z...THE N/NW WINDS
SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN
15-20 KTS MOST LIKELY AT KORF/KECG. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
FRI...SOMEWHAT BREEZY NW FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
DAY AT KSBY...10-15 KT ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SAT/SUN AND SLIDE OFF THE COAST MON-
TUE. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS 06-12Z IN
PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS MON/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE
AREA. ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. A SUBSEQUENT NNW CAA SURGE FOLLOWS TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS (15-20KT) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES WILL REMAIN CAPPED
AT 15KT. THE DURATION OF THE SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/LONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT. THE WIND WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND LIKELY BECOME SEA-BREEZE DOMINATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS
LATER IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY NW SURGE AOB 15KT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN TROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SSW FLOW AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

MDZ021>025-VAZ049-062>064-071>078-082>086-090-091-094-099-100-231830-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
LOUISA-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-JAMES CITY-YORK-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN
NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060-061-065>070-079>081-087>089-092-
093-095>098-231830-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA
AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STEVENSVILLE            37.73N  76.92W
05/22/2014                   KING AND QUEEN     VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ON A ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1400968

LALEXAND

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     WALL CLOUD       4 N FRANKLIN            36.74N  76.94W
05/22/2014                   SOUTHAMPTON        VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1400975

MINNICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

MDZ021-022-222330-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-
655 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DORCHESTER AND WICOMICO
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 655 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WOOLFORD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMBRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BUCKTOWN AT 705 PM EDT...
WETIPQUIN...AND...TYASKIN AT 725 PM EDT...ROYAL OAK AT 730 PM EDT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZED HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
OCCASIONAL DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3847 7569 3846 7567 3828 7575 3829 7576
      3827 7577 3825 7583 3831 7602 3833 7597
      3836 7599 3833 7600 3832 7603 3839 7628
      3857 7622

GINGRICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

VAZ084>086-099-100-230000-
ACCOMACK-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-MIDDLESEX-NORTHAMPTON-
657 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHAMPTON...MIDDLESEX...
MATHEWS...ACCOMACK AND GLOUCESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 657 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
STINGRAY POINT TO STINGRAY POINT TO FORT NONSENSE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR PORT TO 6 MILES EAST OF
DELTAVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AREAS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE   MOBJACK AROUND 705 PM EDT...
  NEW POINT COMFORT AROUND 715 PM EDT...
  EXMORE AROUND 720 PM EDT...
  WILLIS WHARF AROUND 725 PM EDT...
  CHERITON AROUND 730 PM EDT...
  CAPE CHARLES AROUND 735 PM EDT...

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3733 7572 3729 7578 3720 7579 3711 7589
      3711 7596 3709 7594 3708 7597 3725 7604
      3734 7603 3738 7624 3729 7628 3737 7637
      3734 7638 3752 7655 3758 7635 3757 7630
      3738 7624 3734 7602 3764 7590 3748 7565

LBROWN