Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

112 
WWAK47 PAJK 152157
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1257 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

AKZ019-160600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.140116T0900Z-140116T1900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1257 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN 
  INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. 

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT 
  TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
  FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE 
  BORDER. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-160600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0003.140116T0900Z-140116T1900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1257 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN 
  INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING. 

* SNOW...1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT 
  TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
  FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR WHITE 
  PASS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

095 
WWAK47 PAJK 160546
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
846 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

AKZ019-161415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.140116T0900Z-140116T1900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
846 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER BRIDGE.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE
  IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN LATE
  THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT 
  TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
  FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE 
  BORDER. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-161415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0003.140116T0900Z-140116T1900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
846 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
  1100 FEET AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES
  WILL TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW...1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT 
  TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
  FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR WHITE 
  PASS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

594 
WWAK47 PAJK 161353
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
453 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

AKZ019-161900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140116T1900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
453 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM AKST THIS MORNING.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST OF THE CHILKAT RIVER BRIDGE.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN LATE
  THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* SNOW...A TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL BY
  MID MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-161900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140116T1900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
453 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST
THIS MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
AKST THIS MORNING.

* LOCATION...NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1100 FEET AND BE
  HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
  OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.

* SNOW...A TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL BY
  MID MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR WHITE PASS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER 
  CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$


FRITSCH

241 
WWAK47 PAJK 161639
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
739 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

AKZ019-161745-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140116T1900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
739 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES 
ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS RAIN.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-161745-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140116T1900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
739 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL 
AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN NEAR WHITE PASS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
342 PM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...AND LO...WE HAD FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...POWER
OUTAGES...ROAD WASHOUTS...OH AND LOTS OF WIND AND RAIN AND SNOW
TODAY. WAS THERE SOMETHING ELSE? STANEY CREEK REACHED RECORD
STAGE THIS MORNING...AROUND 17.5 FEET. PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
PELICAN IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE STORM.
BARANOF ISLAND HAD A REPORT OF OVER 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. SITKA
AIRPORT APPEARS HAS BROKEN A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD. ABSOLUTELY
AMAZING AMOUNTS HAVE RESULTED IN MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU TO BARANOF TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. ROAD
CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO WASHOUTS. IN
ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN FRITZ COVE NEAR JUNEAU
AND IN THE KETCHIKAN AREA AS A RESULT OF WINDS...SATURATED
GROUND...TREES DOWN...AND/OR MUDSLIDES. FIRST HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR STANEY CREEK IN THE MORNING, BUT AFTER CLUES TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE EVENT STARTED COMING IN...AN AREA WIDE
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE EVENT...BASICALLY FOR ALL ZONES
SOUTH OF GUSTAVUS INCLUDING PELICAN AND JUNEAU.

 THE PATTERN WAS LEFT UNCHANGED, BUT BASED ON GRADIENTS ELECTED
TO INCREASE WINDS IN SKAGWAY...HAINES AND LYNN CANAL TO STORM
FORCE. FOR HAINES/SKAGWAY WENT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...AS THE
WINTER STORM EXPIRES AT 4. WINTER STORM DID VERIFY UP IN THE
NORTHLAND WITH UP CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FALLEN AT THE HAINES
CUSTOM FROM THIS STORM...WHILE SKAGWAY CUSTOMS REPORTED 10 INCHES
FROM THIS MORNING. HAINES ITSELF GOT 2 TO 3 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST VERIFIED IN JUNEAU WITH
AUKE BAY AND THE AIRPORT GOING WEST IN A BIG WAY THIS AFTERNOON
POST-FRONTAL. CONCERN OF A TIP JET DEVELOPING IN CROSS SOUND SO
EXTENDED STORM FORCE THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. YAKUTAT
ALSO ABOUT TO VERIFY STRONG WESTERLIES TOO WITH YAKUTAT BAY GOING
GALE THIS EVENING.

 ECMWF WAS USED AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FEW CHANGES MADE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON A DAY FULL OF REACTIONS TO EVENT
MAGNITUDE.

.LONG TERM...LIMITED MOST CHANGES TO THE FURTHER OUT TIME FRAME.
ENDED UP USING LATEST WPC FROM FRI NIGHT ON OUT TO DAY 8. DID MAKE
SOME WIND DIRECTION TWEAKS TO THE MORE N-S INNER CHANNELS OVER THE
NRN AREA FOR THU-FRI...SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE STAYED THE COURSE FOR THE WED NIGHT-FRI PERIOD. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY WET AND WINDY PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE N INTO THE GULF
DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

 MODEL PREFERENCE WAS MOSTLY THE 12Z ECMWF ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A
BIT TOO FAR W WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FOR WED NIGHT AND
THU. MOST PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA  ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP WILL LIFT N THRU THE MAIN PANHANDLE AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE ERN GULF. A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS
COULD BRING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY TO
THE NRN GULF COAST. THE SERN INNER CHANNELS MAY DRY OUT SOMEWHAT
ESPECIALLY FOR FRI AS UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THEM. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED FOR A DAY OR SO
BEFORE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WARM
TEMPS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ021>029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-031>033-043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034>036-041-042.

&&

JWA/RWT