Gale Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

365 
FZAK52 PAJK 152212 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTH COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
110 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
20 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
342 PM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...AND LO...WE HAD FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...POWER
OUTAGES...ROAD WASHOUTS...OH AND LOTS OF WIND AND RAIN AND SNOW
TODAY. WAS THERE SOMETHING ELSE? STANEY CREEK REACHED RECORD
STAGE THIS MORNING...AROUND 17.5 FEET. PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
PELICAN IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE STORM.
BARANOF ISLAND HAD A REPORT OF OVER 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. SITKA
AIRPORT APPEARS HAS BROKEN A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD. ABSOLUTELY
AMAZING AMOUNTS HAVE RESULTED IN MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU TO BARANOF TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. ROAD
CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO WASHOUTS. IN
ADDITION...POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN FRITZ COVE NEAR JUNEAU
AND IN THE KETCHIKAN AREA AS A RESULT OF WINDS...SATURATED
GROUND...TREES DOWN...AND/OR MUDSLIDES. FIRST HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR STANEY CREEK IN THE MORNING, BUT AFTER CLUES TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE EVENT STARTED COMING IN...AN AREA WIDE
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE EVENT...BASICALLY FOR ALL ZONES
SOUTH OF GUSTAVUS INCLUDING PELICAN AND JUNEAU.

 THE PATTERN WAS LEFT UNCHANGED, BUT BASED ON GRADIENTS ELECTED
TO INCREASE WINDS IN SKAGWAY...HAINES AND LYNN CANAL TO STORM
FORCE. FOR HAINES/SKAGWAY WENT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...AS THE
WINTER STORM EXPIRES AT 4. WINTER STORM DID VERIFY UP IN THE
NORTHLAND WITH UP CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FALLEN AT THE HAINES
CUSTOM FROM THIS STORM...WHILE SKAGWAY CUSTOMS REPORTED 10 INCHES
FROM THIS MORNING. HAINES ITSELF GOT 2 TO 3 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST VERIFIED IN JUNEAU WITH
AUKE BAY AND THE AIRPORT GOING WEST IN A BIG WAY THIS AFTERNOON
POST-FRONTAL. CONCERN OF A TIP JET DEVELOPING IN CROSS SOUND SO
EXTENDED STORM FORCE THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. YAKUTAT
ALSO ABOUT TO VERIFY STRONG WESTERLIES TOO WITH YAKUTAT BAY GOING
GALE THIS EVENING.

 ECMWF WAS USED AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FEW CHANGES MADE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON A DAY FULL OF REACTIONS TO EVENT
MAGNITUDE.

.LONG TERM...LIMITED MOST CHANGES TO THE FURTHER OUT TIME FRAME.
ENDED UP USING LATEST WPC FROM FRI NIGHT ON OUT TO DAY 8. DID MAKE
SOME WIND DIRECTION TWEAKS TO THE MORE N-S INNER CHANNELS OVER THE
NRN AREA FOR THU-FRI...SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE STAYED THE COURSE FOR THE WED NIGHT-FRI PERIOD. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY WET AND WINDY PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE N INTO THE GULF
DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

 MODEL PREFERENCE WAS MOSTLY THE 12Z ECMWF ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A
BIT TOO FAR W WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FOR WED NIGHT AND
THU. MOST PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA  ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP WILL LIFT N THRU THE MAIN PANHANDLE AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE ERN GULF. A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS
COULD BRING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY TO
THE NRN GULF COAST. THE SERN INNER CHANNELS MAY DRY OUT SOMEWHAT
ESPECIALLY FOR FRI AS UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THEM. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED FOR A DAY OR SO
BEFORE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WARM
TEMPS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ021>029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-031>033-043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034>036-041-042.

&&

JWA/RWT