Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2014
Storm Warning 46, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Dec 17, 2014, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 17, 2014, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 18, 2014, 4:00 PM AKST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
749 FZAK52 PAJK 180046 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-181400- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A WEAK FRONT IN THE SE GULF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A STORM FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THU ABSORBING THE WEAK FRONT. THE STRONG FRONT WILL SPREAD HIGH WINDS AND SEA ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THU. $$ PKZ041-181400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ042-181400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. .THU...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ043-181400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. .THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ051-181400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. .THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ052-181400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. .THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN LATE. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
544 FZAK52 PAJK 180541 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-181400- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A WEAK FRONT IN THE SE GULF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE WED EVENING. A STORM FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THU ABSORBING THE WEAK FRONT. THE STRONG FRONT WILL SPREAD HIGH WINDS AND SEA ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THU. $$ PKZ041-181400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ042-181400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. .THU...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ043-181400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. .THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ051-181400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. .THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ052-181400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 841 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. .THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN LATE. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$
485 FZAK52 PAJK 181241 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-190100- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF ON FRI. $$ PKZ041-190100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ042-190100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ043-190100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ051-190100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ052-190100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$
172 FZAK52 PAJK 182101 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-190100- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF ON FRI. $$ PKZ041-190100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ042-190100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. .FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ043-190100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ051-190100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ052-190100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 1200 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 17, 5:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 5:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 11 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...MINOR UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY APPROACH THE SRN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. COLD
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CORRESPOND
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE WAVE EXITS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THAT WILL
BECOME POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /12-15Z THU/. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND ITS
PARENT LOW...WITH IT/S ESEWD BRANCH APPROACHING THE SERN GULF THU
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT...AND ESELY 925
MB WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT...WILL FAVOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT GAP WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN CROSS SOUND BY THIS POINT AS WELL...AND
30 KT SELY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. THE
STRONGER 925 MB WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CLIP LAND ZONE 27 BY
12Z THU...AND MAY SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG WIND CRITERIA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS WILL YIELD WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH MODEST 850 MB WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT MAY SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION DURING WED
NIGHT...HIGHEST POP/S LOCATED OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. OFFSHORE/NLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOCATED FROM JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS N TO SKAGWAY IS FORECAST TO
BRING A COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING...AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST.
THUS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...STORM FORCE FRONT POISED TO MOVE MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THUS
WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN 65 MPH JET AT 925 MB, THIS WAS NOT A TOUGH
CALL. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS THURSDAY MORNING AND BY MID-DAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BARANOF ISLAND. METLAKATLA AND ANNETTE ISLAND WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE WIND THAN KETCHIKAN WITH THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION
AND TRACK WITHIN ZONE 28. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH GALE FORCE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL AFFLICT CROSS SOUND AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFTS IN MANY CHANNELS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE GRADIENT WOULD
SUPPORT OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THE SETUP IS
MARGINAL WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHIFT AT THE CRITICAL
LEVEL. BUT GIVEN NEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE WE ALLOWED 15 TO 25 MPH
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING ROLE REVERSAL LOOKING AT THE TWO MOST
USEFUL SOLUTIONS FOR MODELING THIS FRONT. THE NAM, OFTEN USING THE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUCH A FRONT, IS GENERALLY
DRIER IN CASES SUCH AS THIS ONE. WHILE THE ECMWF OFTEN SPREADS THE
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY, NOT ALLOWING THE TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO THE NORTH TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR VIRGA TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THE NAM AND THE HIGH RES WERE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF
REGARDING THE ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO JUNEAU. GIVEN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AT THE MID-LEVELS THAT WOULD NATURALLY BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC COOLING AS
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AND EVAPORATES THROUGH THE AIR. SO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY FOR MUCH OF JUNEAU AT LEAST BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE DID EXTEND THE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
ZONE. AS GRADIENTS AND 925 MB WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS FULL-PROOF ON
THE SOUTHERLIES TURNING THINGS TO ALL RAIN AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE FALLING ON WHEN
EXACTLY A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR. IT WOULD BE AN
EASIER CALL IF ONLY A LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CLEARLY MANIFEST ITSELF,
BUT MODELS AT BEST ONLY TEASING WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION.
NEVERTHELESS WE DID PULL BACK ON POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
PULLS WESTWARD AND SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT IS LOOKING A BIT MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. SNOW MAY
NEED TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING FOR
JUNEAU. STAY TUNED. LIKEWISE GUSTAVUS WILL BE A TRICKY CALL AT
TIMES FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE.
YET TWO MORE WAVES LOOK LIKELIER TO GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THUS KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST--WITH
SNOW LIKELY AROUND LYNN CANAL. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SEEM TO BE LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR SUCCESSIVE SIGNALS ON THIS BEFORE WE BEGIN NUDGING IN
THAT DIRECTION.
USED NAM AND ECWMF FOR GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FEW
CHANGES BEYOND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL SPREAD LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE FALLING FOR
RAIN/SNOW LINE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ023.
STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036.
&&
GARNER/JWA
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAUThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 3:43 PM AKST | High Wind Warning | AJK | 26 hr | |
| Dec 17, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Dec 17, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Dec 17, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Dec 17, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Dec 17, 9:16 PM AKST | Dense Fog Advisory | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Dec 18, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Dec 18, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Dec 18, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AJK | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.