High Wind Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

973 
WWAK77 PAJK 180616
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
916 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

AKZ027-181400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0015.141218T1500Z-141219T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
916 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WIND...GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EARLY THURSDAY 
  MORNING WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO 
  EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START DECREASING THURSDAY 
  EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD 
  BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE SURE TO PROTECT 
  BOATS AND AIRCRAFT. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF 
  POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER LINES.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-181400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.FG.Y.0040.141218T0616Z-141218T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
916 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY. 

* LOCATION...MAINLY NORTH OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

* VISIBILITY...1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. TEMPERATURES
  JUST BELOW FREEZING WILL ALSO CAUSE FOG TO FREEZE ON AREA
  ROADS...MAKING THEM SLICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT DENSE FOG IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.

ALL TRAVEL SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

231 
WWAK77 PAJK 181347
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
447 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

AKZ025-181500-
/X.CAN.PAJK.FG.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-141218T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
447 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 

DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.

$$

AKZ027-182200-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0015.141218T1500Z-141219T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
447 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WIND...GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
  WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL START
  DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD 
  BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE SURE TO PROTECT 
  BOATS AND AIRCRAFT. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF 
  POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER LINES.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

399 
WWAK77 PAJK 182127
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1227 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

AKZ027-190300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-141219T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1227 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WIND...GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

* TIMING...HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND ARE
  EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL START
  TO DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD 
  BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BE SURE TO PROTECT 
  BOATS AND AIRCRAFT. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF 
  POWER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER LINES.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

313 
WWAK77 PAJK 190247
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

AKZ027-190400-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-141219T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
547 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

CONDITIONS NO LONGER ARE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WARNING
AREA.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...MINOR UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY APPROACH THE SRN COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. COLD
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CORRESPOND
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE WAVE EXITS
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THAT WILL
BECOME POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /12-15Z THU/. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND ITS
PARENT LOW...WITH IT/S ESEWD BRANCH APPROACHING THE SERN GULF THU
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT...AND ESELY 925
MB WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT...WILL FAVOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT GAP WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN CROSS SOUND BY THIS POINT AS WELL...AND
30 KT SELY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. THE
STRONGER 925 MB WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CLIP LAND ZONE 27 BY
12Z THU...AND MAY SUPPORT GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG WIND CRITERIA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS WILL YIELD WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH MODEST 850 MB WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT MAY SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION DURING WED
NIGHT...HIGHEST POP/S LOCATED OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. OFFSHORE/NLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOCATED FROM JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS N TO SKAGWAY IS FORECAST TO
BRING A COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING...AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST.
THUS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...STORM FORCE FRONT POISED TO MOVE MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THUS
WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN 65 MPH JET AT 925 MB, THIS WAS NOT A TOUGH
CALL. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS THURSDAY MORNING AND BY MID-DAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BARANOF ISLAND. METLAKATLA AND ANNETTE ISLAND WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE WIND THAN KETCHIKAN WITH THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION
AND TRACK WITHIN ZONE 28. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH GALE FORCE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL AFFLICT CROSS SOUND AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH SOLID
SMALL CRAFTS IN MANY CHANNELS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE GRADIENT WOULD
SUPPORT OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, THE SETUP IS
MARGINAL WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHIFT AT THE CRITICAL
LEVEL. BUT GIVEN NEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SALISBURY RIDGE WE ALLOWED 15 TO 25 MPH
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

THERE IS AN INTERESTING ROLE REVERSAL LOOKING AT THE TWO MOST
USEFUL SOLUTIONS FOR MODELING THIS FRONT. THE NAM, OFTEN USING THE
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUCH A FRONT, IS GENERALLY
DRIER IN CASES SUCH AS THIS ONE. WHILE THE ECMWF OFTEN SPREADS THE
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY, NOT ALLOWING THE TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO THE NORTH TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR VIRGA TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THE NAM AND THE HIGH RES WERE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF
REGARDING THE ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO JUNEAU. GIVEN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AT THE MID-LEVELS THAT WOULD NATURALLY BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE A LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC COOLING AS
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AND EVAPORATES THROUGH THE AIR. SO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY FOR MUCH OF JUNEAU AT LEAST BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE DID EXTEND THE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
ZONE. AS GRADIENTS AND 925 MB WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS FULL-PROOF ON
THE SOUTHERLIES TURNING THINGS TO ALL RAIN AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE FALLING ON WHEN
EXACTLY A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR. IT WOULD BE AN
EASIER CALL IF ONLY A LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CLEARLY MANIFEST ITSELF,
BUT MODELS AT BEST ONLY TEASING WITH A SLIGHT SUGGESTION.
NEVERTHELESS WE DID PULL BACK ON POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
PULLS WESTWARD AND SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT IS LOOKING A BIT MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. SNOW MAY
NEED TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING FOR
JUNEAU. STAY TUNED. LIKEWISE GUSTAVUS WILL BE A TRICKY CALL AT
TIMES FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE.

YET TWO MORE WAVES LOOK LIKELIER TO GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THUS KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST--WITH
SNOW LIKELY AROUND LYNN CANAL. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SEEM TO BE LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR SUCCESSIVE SIGNALS ON THIS BEFORE WE BEGIN NUDGING IN
THAT DIRECTION.

USED NAM AND ECWMF FOR GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FEW
CHANGES BEYOND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR WINDS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL SPREAD LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT TWO SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE FALLING FOR
RAIN/SNOW LINE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036.

&&

GARNER/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU