Storm Warning 29, NWS Juneau, AK

995 
FZAK52 PAJK 060745 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070145-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE PANHANDLE AROUND CAPE
DECISION THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND LARGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT SPREADING GALE FORCE WINDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST. 

$$

PKZ041-070145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-070145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-070145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-070145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT. S SWELL.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-070145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1045 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
617 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE STAGE IS SET AND LIT: A VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GULF, A 300 MB SOUTHERLY JET IN
EXCESS OF 150 KT, AND A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE SEPARATING WARM
MOIST AIR OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN FROM THE COLDER AIR OF BERING SEA
ORIGINS. THIS 976 MB STORM FORCED SURFACE FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT CURVES NORTHWARD TO CAPE DECISION AND MOVE THROUGH THE GATES
OF SOUTHEAST AROUND CAPES DECISION/OMMANEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT WILL RAVAGE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF AS
WELL AS SUMNER AND CLARENCE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST 50 KT OF WIND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

MONDAY'S STORM WAS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD PREDICTED,
AND THIS WORRIES US. WITH THE MODEL SPREAD OF SPEED AND TRACK AT
THIS LATE HOUR, RATHER THAN GOING WITH ONE SOLUTION, DECIDED TO
HANDLE AS BEST WE COULD A MIX OF SOLUTIONS, HEDGING WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS FROM ANY ONE PARTICULAR TRUSTED MODEL. THUS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE WIND FORECAST OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES SOMEWHAT
HIGH. CONFIDENCE GREAT FOR HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE (ZONES 27 AND 28) AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF ZONE
26. CONFIDENCE FALLING FOR ZONE 23, AS THE ECMWF AND BOTH THE HIGH
RES ARW AND NMM ARE IMPRESSIVELY RAPID WITH ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
AND FARTHER EASTWARD TRACK, PERHAPS MIMICKING MONDAY'S STORM. IF
THIS OCCURS, NORTHEAST HIGH WINDS MAY BE AVOIDED WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN BARANOF. HOWEVER, IF THE STORM JOGS A LITTLE
WESTWARD FROM OUR BEST ANSWER, SOUTHEAST HIGH WINDS MAY BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL JETS OF PLUS/MINUS 70 KT ARE INDICATED
BY ALL THE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS AHEAD OF THE STORM. ALTHOUGH
SOUTHWEST WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO RECORD AS HIGH AT SOME OF OUR
METEOROLOGICAL SITES ON PRINCE OF WALES, THE SECOND WRAP WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE JUST AS
WORRISOME. IF ANYTHING, WE DID TRY TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS A
LITTLE EARLIER IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS LIKE ZONE 27 TO ACCOUNT FOR AN
ANTICIPATED HIGHER FORWARD SYSTEM SPEED.

TO ADD TO OUR STORM ENTERING STAGE SOUTH, A VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED
WAVE OF VORTICITY ALOFT...COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION...WILL RELEASE THE
MOMENTUM OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION. THUS WE FEEL
STRONGLY THAT MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CUT IT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
STRENGTHENED THIS TENDENCY FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS. THEREFORE A SECOND
HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE MOUNTAIN PRECEDING THE
STORM ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

RAINS WILL SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AS OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT WRAPS IN WITH THE SYSTEM, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
THIS EVENING PANHANDLE WIDE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BRING UP TO
3 INCHES FOR THE HIGHWAYS LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH FROM THE YUKON.

USED ECMWF/HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TO STRENGTHEN WINDS WHERE THE
EXISTING STRENGTH WAS SUB-REPRESENTED. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE ON
OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...QUICK SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO PUSH FIRST FRONTAL
BAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTAL BAND WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BAND
IS TAPPING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE MID TROPICS AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
INCREASING SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE FOR 12 HOUR PERIODS ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AS
THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST.

RIVER LEVELS BELOW MOST FLOODING ISSUES AND WHILE THE RAINS WILL
BRING LEVELS UP DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS WHILE HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF ARE ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE THE VERY DEEP LOW MOVING
INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 920S MB.
SOME POSITIONING DIFFERENCES HOWEVER THEY SEEM TO TRY AND PUT
FRONTAL BAND IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS AND SHOULD SEE IT MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY. WHILE THE PARENT LOW STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA REGION AND WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKST
     TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-025-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-032-034-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-051-052.

&&

ADKINS/BEZENEK

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