Gale Warning 341, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
408 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR WIND OUTBREAK IS SET UP AND ALREADY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS AS STRONG
975-970ISH LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND EAST OF
SITKA PRIOR TO RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER ABOUT 06Z. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUOY OBS HAVE THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...ALBEIT LIKELY TO BE BRIEF...IN THE LOWS CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. ALSO CURRENT OBS INDICATE THE LOW'S PROGRESS
IS A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. IR LOOP INDICATES TREND
TOWARDS A STRENGTHENING LOW AND CIRCULATION INCREASING TO THE
SOUTH. VIS LOOP STARTING TO SHOW SOME WRAP UP ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY ALONG THE JET STREAK ALOFT. MINIMUM PRESSURE
WITH THE LOW BOTTOMS OUT AT AROUND 00Z-03Z. MEANWHILE MODEL-
PREDICTED 925MB WINDS EXCEED 70KTS BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z MOSTLY ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW. WINDS CURRENTLY IN KETCHIKAN
HAVE GUSTED TO MORE THAN 40KT AND BUOY 46205 OFF THE SOUTH END 55KT
AND CAPE DECISION 55KT. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE TWO FOLD...PRE-
LOW WINDS IN GENERAL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND OUTFLOW/MOUNTAIN
WAVE ENHANCEMENT AROUND JUNEAU...THEN A PERIOD OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE WORST WINDS AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AFTER 00Z. APPEARS LIKELY TO MAKE
LANDFALL AROUND CAPE DECISION. INHERITED GRIDS WERE MOSTLY ON
TRACK AND STORM WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ALTERED FOR SOUTHERN MARINE
ZONES OFFSHORE AND INSHORE. GALE WARNINGS OUT FOR MOST OTHER INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL AS 43 OFFSHORE. PUBLIC ZONES...HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING TAKU OUTBREAK IN
THE JUNEAU AREA FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES
TONIGHT FOR THE BRIEF ACCELERATED SWLY FLOW ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
LOW. LAST NIGHT'S SHIFT CAUGHT ON WITH THE INCREASE NICELY AND
HAVE NOT RUN INTO ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.
JUST SOME WIND AND PRECIP TWEAKS.

AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING...LOW RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT IMPACTS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND STEADILY GIVES WAY TO BROAD SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY 12Z OR SO. THIS THEN WEAKENS
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A NEW LARGE LOW ENTERS THE
GULF FROM THE WEST...SUPPORTED BY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT. TROUGH WITH
ITS SUPPORT IS SLOWING, BUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AT 03Z MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER ALL OFFSHORE
AREAS AND HAS EVEN BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME INNER CHANNELS WITH 20KTS
ON THE SOUTH END. ASSOCIATED FRONT/OCCLUSION AND PRECIP IS PROGGED
ON MODELS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL 09ZISH ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BECOME WRAPPED
UP WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING THEN OVER LAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT TOO - 50-60KT AT 850MB AND A BARRIER JET JUST OFF THE
COAST NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AT OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH ANCHORAGE.
THEREFORE EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THEN
SPREADING EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE/INSIDE WATERS. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS HOLD ON AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST SPEEDS ALOFT OVER CLARENCE STRAIT. SO LIKELY TO HAVE YET
ANOTHER STORM WARNING THERE...INCREASED SPEEDS NEAR LINCOLN ROCK
TO 45KT FOR NOW JUST BELOW STORM WARNING. ALSO INCREASED SPEEDS
SOME OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS TO 45KT AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS. ADJUSTED DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS AGAIN FOR LYNN CANAL
DUE TO PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE WITH FLOW ALOFT BEING
LARGELY SOUTHERLY. SO MORE LIKELY A LIGHT NORTH WIND NEAR TAIYA
INLET AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY DOWN BY POINT RETREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WEAKENS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING TO A TROUGH AS
ENERGY IS TAKEN AWAY BY THE LARGER BERING SEA LOW. THERE WILL
STILL BE SHOWERS AROUND AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGHS/MULTIPLE WRAPS PASS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL HAVE A DRYING EFFECT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW TURNING BACK ONSHORE
MONDAY.

A FRONT FROM A BERING SEA LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AS A NEW LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THAT LOW BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CAUSE
THE BERING SEA FRONT TO NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR THE PANHANDLE.

PREFERRED THE NAM AND GFS SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF HOW THE PRESSURE
RIDGE LOOKED OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND MORE OF A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WITH THE FRONT PASSING FRI NIGHT/SAT. OTHERWISE AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH WAS USED AND A BIT MORE WPC FOR LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-025>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-032-034-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-051-052.

&&

WESLEY/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1023 PM AKST WED NOV 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 NW KETCHIKAN         55.44N 131.83W
11/05/2014                                      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAUSED SOME ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

EAL