Storm Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

775 
FZAK52 PAJK 210208 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-212015-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY SUN AND WILL MOVE TO OFF ICY BAY SUN
NIGHT. A SOUTH FETCH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MON. 
 

$$

PKZ041-212015-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-212015-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-212015-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT BECOMING SW GALE 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-212015-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING SW LATE.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-212015-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

466 
FZAK52 PAJK 211153
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA EARLY SUN AND WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG 140 WEST AND ONSHORE
INTO THE YUKON BY MONDAY MORNING. A SOUTH FETCH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MON.   

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. W SWELL LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO
60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE NE IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING...BECOMING SW
LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE COAST AS THE GALE FORCE LOW THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. CHOSE THE 20/12Z ECMWF AS THE GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST OF THE OPS MODELS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK AND STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WIND WIND WIND
WAS THE CHALLENGE. INDICATED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER
COAST AND KETCHIKAN AND GALES AND STORMS IN THE MARINE FORECASTS.
CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AND IF IN ERROR THE WIND SPEEDS WERE
FORECASTED ON THE HIGH SIDE RESPECTING THIS STORM. WET WET WET BUT
WITH MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE STORM FORCE LOW
IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF ICY BAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER
LEVEL WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO A
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.

WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AND 30-40 KTS
OF WIND IN THE MARINE LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT EXTENDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FROM SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THEY WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.

RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSE TO
0-2 C. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING
UP FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE STORM
FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. TRANSITIONED TO LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH STORM
FORCE LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

JC/TPS

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