Storm Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

243 
FZAK67 PAJK 210208 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-212015-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP S OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY SUN AND WILL MOVE TO OFF ICY BAY SUN
NIGHT. A SOUTH FETCH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MON. 
 

$$

PKZ310-212015-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
608 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF 140 W...VARIABLE WIND LESS THEN 15 KT INCREASING TO
NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. W OF 140 W...VARIABLE WIND LESS
THEN 15 KT INCREASING TO N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL.
.SUN...E OF 140 W...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SW 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. W OF 140
W...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

061 
FZAK67 PAJK 211144
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-220100-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA EARLY SUN AND WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG 140 WEST AND ONSHORE
INTO THE YUKON BY MONDAY MORNING. A SOUTH FETCH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MON.   

$$

PKZ310-220100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 140 W...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. W
OF 140 W...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N OF 57 N...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12
FT. S OF 57 N...W 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

726 
FZAK67 PAJK 212337
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-221400-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTH NEAR
140 WEST AND ONSHORE INTO THE YUKON BY MON MORNING. A SOUTH
FETCH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MON.  

$$

PKZ310-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 57 N...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. S OF 57 N...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW
20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

740 
FZAK67 PAJK 221115
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY AS A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ABOUT 600 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII DRIFTS EAST SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY.    

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014 

.TODAY...N OF 58 N...SW WIND 25 MPH DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. S OF 58 N...SW WIND
20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN THE
EVENING THEN SUBSIDING.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE COAST AS THE GALE FORCE LOW THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. CHOSE THE 20/12Z ECMWF AS THE GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS THE DEEPEST OF THE OPS MODELS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
TRACK AND STORM FORCE WINDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WIND WIND WIND
WAS THE CHALLENGE. INDICATED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER
COAST AND KETCHIKAN AND GALES AND STORMS IN THE MARINE FORECASTS.
CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE AND IF IN ERROR THE WIND SPEEDS WERE
FORECASTED ON THE HIGH SIDE RESPECTING THIS STORM. WET WET WET BUT
WITH MODERATE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE STORM FORCE LOW
IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF ICY BAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER
LEVEL WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO A
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.

WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AND 30-40 KTS
OF WIND IN THE MARINE LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT EXTENDED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FROM SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THEY WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.

RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSE TO
0-2 C. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING
UP FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE STORM
FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. TRANSITIONED TO LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH STORM
FORCE LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052-053.

&&

JC/TPS

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