Small Craft Advisory 751, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW JUST
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS
AND HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCREASE AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST. ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE BETWEEN THE INCOMING LOW AND PERSISTING YUKON HIGH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HANDLING THE STORM TRACK AND OPTED
THE GEM GLOBAL SOLUTION TO REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE DUE TO ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION.

THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL BECOME ABOUT 980 MB OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO
NEAR SITKA BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A SLIGHT WEAKENING TO ABOUT
986 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF AS ABOUT 996 MB LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9
AM TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 6 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND GALE TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS SPREAD THE REST OF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STORM WILL HIT WED EVENING. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. BY 3 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL OPERATIONS MODELS MOVE
THE NEXT LOW CENTER TO JUST OFF DIXON ENTRANCE. THE 03/12Z ECMWF
DROPS THE LOW TO MONDO 965 MB WHILE THE GEM & NAM DEEPEN TO 973 OR
SO. THE OUTLIER WAS THE 03/12Z GFS THAT WAS TOSSED. THIS MATURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BENT BACK OCCLUSION AND EASILY STORM FORCE WIND
WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. THIS STORM CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR CAPE DECISION AROUND 06Z THU (9 PM WED NITE) AND WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE AT THE PORT ALEXANDER TIDE GAUGE. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL DESCRIBE IMPACTS. THIS MORNINGS WPC PROGS
WERE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR DAYS 4-8 WHICH ARE WET WITH SOME WIND AND
A SERIES OF FRONTS.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING TIL 9 AM TUE AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND TIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND TIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING PKZ012-013-022-031-033>035-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011-021-032-051-052.
&&

AHN/JC

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