Gale Warning 331, NWS Juneau, AK

302 
FZAK52 PAJK 040726 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041600-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 988 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS OF SE AK WILL
MOVE N AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATE
TONIGHT. A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND
DRIFT W TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NEAR PORT ALEXANDER FROM THE S BY
WED EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-041600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS
16 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ042-041600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 14 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ043-041600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OFF CAPE EDGECUMBE.
SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING BY NOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ051-041600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING BY NOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ052-041600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1026 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW JUST
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS
AND HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS INCREASE AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST. ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE BETWEEN THE INCOMING LOW AND PERSISTING YUKON HIGH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HANDLING THE STORM TRACK AND OPTED
THE GEM GLOBAL SOLUTION TO REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE DUE TO ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION.

THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL BECOME ABOUT 980 MB OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO
NEAR SITKA BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A SLIGHT WEAKENING TO ABOUT
986 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF AS ABOUT 996 MB LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9
AM TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 6 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND GALE TO SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS SPREAD THE REST OF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER STORM WILL HIT WED EVENING. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. BY 3 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL OPERATIONS MODELS MOVE
THE NEXT LOW CENTER TO JUST OFF DIXON ENTRANCE. THE 03/12Z ECMWF
DROPS THE LOW TO MONDO 965 MB WHILE THE GEM & NAM DEEPEN TO 973 OR
SO. THE OUTLIER WAS THE 03/12Z GFS THAT WAS TOSSED. THIS MATURE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BENT BACK OCCLUSION AND EASILY STORM FORCE WIND
WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. THIS STORM CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR CAPE DECISION AROUND 06Z THU (9 PM WED NITE) AND WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE AT THE PORT ALEXANDER TIDE GAUGE. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL DESCRIBE IMPACTS. THIS MORNINGS WPC PROGS
WERE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR DAYS 4-8 WHICH ARE WET WITH SOME WIND AND
A SERIES OF FRONTS.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING TIL 9 AM TUE AKZ023-026>028.
         STRONG WIND TIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND TIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING PKZ012-013-022-031-033>035-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011-021-032-051-052.
&&

AHN/JC

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